Markets rebounded after Donald Trump said a peace deal with Iran could be finalised by the weekend, although Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no final decision had been made and local media disputed claims a memorandum of understanding was complete. Attention now turns to SpaceX’s IPO, which raised $75bn and is set to trade on Friday, 12 June under the ticker SPCX after pricing on Thursday, 11 June. Fidelity reportedly cut its IPO entry requirement from as high as $500,000 in account balance to $2,000, extending retail access that is expected to be channelled via Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, E*Trade and Charles Schwab. Nasdaq opens at 9:30 a.m. ET, but the first SPCX print may come later as orders are matched. Technical levels are in focus as positioning builds. SPX stalled near 7,600 after a nine-week rally, then retraced to the daily 50 EMA; it remains below the 1H 50 EMA and faces resistance around 7,450 and 7,500. RSP rebounded from $206.64–$207.42 and is testing $210.49–$211.00, while MAGS broke a $68 neckline, pulled back towards $65, and on a 1H basis is wrestling with $66.29 and the 50 EMA band. NDX bounced from 28,600–28,810 and is approaching 29,600; under Nasdaq fast-entry, eligibility for Nasdaq-100 inclusion can come after roughly 15 trading days, pointing to an early window around 6–7 July. —

Rotation Risks and Hedging Strategies Amid the SpaceX IPO

Today, June 12, 2026, all eyes are on the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO and its potential to draw capital away from existing market leaders. The main question for us is whether this event triggers a broader rotation out of mega-cap tech. We are watching the MAGS ETF closely; if it fails to reclaim the $65 level, it would signal weakness among the Magnificent Seven. This situation calls for hedging our existing long positions in big tech. We should consider buying puts on the Nasdaq-100 tracking ETF (QQQ) or on individual tech names that seem over-extended. If MAGS rejects its resistance, this rotation could accelerate, making these protective puts more valuable in the coming weeks. —

Market Volatility, Historical Parallels, and Breadth Signals

Historically, mega-IPOs like Facebook’s in 2012 were met with initial volatility and a significant drop in share price post-debut. Data from Renaissance Capital also shows that, on average, the largest IPOs have underperformed the S&P 500 in the six months following their listing. This precedent suggests caution is warranted and that the initial hype around SPCX may not be sustainable. The sheer size of this IPO is creating uncertainty, which is visible in market volatility. The VIX is currently trading just above 19, up from last week, indicating traders are pricing in a wider range of outcomes. This environment makes strategies like buying straddles on the QQQ an interesting proposition to trade the expected increase in price swings. Looking ahead, we must prepare for SpaceX’s potential fast-track inclusion into the Nasdaq-100, possibly as early as the second week of July. Index-tracking funds would then be forced to sell other constituents to buy SPCX shares, creating predictable selling pressure on existing heavyweights. This makes longer-dated puts on certain Nasdaq giants a strategic play for the next month. The unusually broad access for retail investors, with account minimums as low as $2,000, introduces another variable. Brokerage data shows that retail participation in IPOs has nearly doubled since 2024, and such heavy involvement has sometimes marked moments of maximum hype. We will therefore use options to define our risk rather than adding to broad market long positions at these levels. Finally, we are monitoring the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) as a measure of market breadth. A rejection at its current $211 resistance zone while the main S&P 500 index also stalls would confirm that this rebound is narrow. This would be our signal to become more bearish on the overall market, as it would indicate the average stock is not participating in the upside.

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