Geopolitical and Monetary Policy Factors
We are seeing oil prices consolidate as the market weighs conflicting forces. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the stalled negotiations between the US and Iran, are providing a floor under the price, preventing any significant sell-off. This uncertainty about a potential deal keeps supply risks at the forefront of traders’ minds. At the same time, we are shifting our focus towards monetary policy and its effect on demand. With central banks like the Bank of Canada expected to tighten policy next week, fears of an economic slowdown are capping any rallies. Recent inflation data from May 2026 showed core inflation remains stubbornly high, reinforcing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance through the summer. Supply-side factors outside of Iran are also crucial to our thinking. OPEC+ recently signaled it would hold production levels steady, concerned that aggressive rate hikes could dampen global demand later this year. This decision shows the cartel is aiming to support prices, making a steep decline less probable without a major economic shock.Technical Outlook and Trading Strategy
From a technical standpoint, the current price action below the 20-day EMA near $93.51 suggests a soft bearish bias for now. This view was reinforced by the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on June 3, 2026, which showed a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories of 1.8 million barrels, hinting at softer demand. The Relative Strength Index hovering around 48 gives us room for a further move down toward the $90 support level. For the coming weeks, our strategy is to watch these key levels closely. We see rallies toward the $93.51 resistance as potential opportunities to hedge or initiate short positions, possibly using options to limit risk. Conversely, if economic fears push the price down toward the stronger support trend line around $84, we would consider that a potential dip-buying opportunity given the supportive supply fundamentals.Start trading now — click here to create your real VT Markets account.
