Implications For Fed Policy, Treasury Yields, And Equities
The improvement in the ISM manufacturing employment to 48.6, while still showing contraction, suggests the sector’s decline is slowing. We see this as a sign that the worst of the manufacturing job losses might be behind us for now. This slight stabilization reduces the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve for aggressive rate cuts. Given this, we believe the probability of a July rate cut, which the CME FedWatch Tool recently priced at over 70%, could be revised downwards towards 50%. Consequently, we are anticipating a slight upward pressure on short-term Treasury yields in the coming weeks. We are adjusting positions by slightly reducing our exposure to interest rate-sensitive assets. For equity indices, this data points towards a potential cap on the market’s upside. The continued contraction prevents a full-blown bull case, so we are considering selling out-of-the-money call options on the S&P 500 to capitalize on a range-bound market. Historically, markets have often stalled when “less bad” news fails to turn into genuinely good news.Currency And Sector Opportunities
This less-dovish outlook for the Fed should provide support for the U.S. dollar. We see an opportunity to favor the dollar against currencies where central banks remain more accommodative, such as the Japanese Yen. The dollar index (DXY) found support near the 104 level last month, and this data reinforces that floor. In terms of specific sectors, we are now looking more closely at industrials and materials. While still weak, the slowing contraction could signal a bottom is forming, presenting an opportunity to selectively buy call options on high-quality industrial names that have been oversold. Data from May 2026 showed the industrials ETF (XLI) underperformed the broader market by 2%, making it a candidate for a mean-reversion trade.Start trading now — click here to create your real VT Markets account.
