Key Highlights:
- The SP500 closed at 5509.88, down 0.17%, as investor sentiment stayed cautious.
- All eyes are on Wednesday’s U.S. Q1 GDP release, with downside risks in focus.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent denies any ongoing talks with China despite Trump’s claims.
- Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are set to report earnings midweek.
U.S. equities wavered to start the week, with the SP500 retreating slightly to finish at 5509.88. The modest drop came as traders paused after last week’s bounce, reassessing risk in light of mixed signals on trade policy and economic growth.
President Trump’s recent tariff comments—and subsequent walk-backs—have injected fresh volatility. Adding to the uncertainty, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified there are no formal negotiations with China at this time, contradicting earlier White House remarks.
Meanwhile, political tensions remain elevated. Trump has continued criticising the Federal Reserve before reversing tone again, leaving markets unsure of what comes next.
📉 Focus Turns to GDP Figures
The spotlight now shifts to Wednesday’s first-quarter U.S. GDP report, with economists projecting a sharp slowdown. Expectations sit at just 0.4% growth, compared to 2.4% in the previous quarter. However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model still flags a risk of contraction—raising fears of a possible technical recession.
This adds to the uncertainty hanging over markets. Investors are growing wary, not just of growth risks but also of how U.S. trade strategy may shift if economic figures continue to disappoint.
💻 Tech Giants in the Spotlight
Adding another layer of importance to this week, over 40% of SP500 companies will release earnings. Among them are several tech heavyweights—Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon—whose forward guidance could heavily influence broader sentiment.
Strong results may help stabilise the market, but any disappointment could worsen the risk-off tone, especially with macro fears still lingering.
📊 SP500 Technical Picture: Holding Steady in a Tight Range
Technically, the SP500 remains in consolidation mode. After rebounding from the 5493.75 support level, the index is trading near 5509.88. Moving averages (5, 10, 30) have flattened, signalling a neutral stance as the market digests recent volatility.
🖼️ Chart: SP500 consolidates near recent highs, with buyers cautiously defending key support – via VT Markets app
The MACD shows a slow recovery from earlier bearish pressure, but momentum remains indecisive near the zero line. If bulls push through the 5537.45 resistance level, we could see an extension towards 5560. Conversely, failure to hold the 5490 level could invite deeper selling pressure.
Picture: SP500 consolidates near recent highs, with buyers cautiously defending key support, see on the VT Markets app
🔮 What to Watch Next
The overall tone remains cautious. Uncertainty around U.S. growth, unresolved trade dynamics, and political noise continue to weigh on sentiment. Until there’s clearer direction—whether from strong GDP data or confident earnings outlooks—the SP500 may stay stuck in a narrow and volatile trading range.
Investors are unlikely to chase risk aggressively until they get more clarity on the economy’s path and Washington’s policy stance.
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