{"id":54872,"date":"2026-09-03T09:52:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T09:52:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/uncategorized\/why-gold-stopped-trading-like-gold\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T09:52:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T09:52:19","slug":"why-gold-stopped-trading-like-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/opinion\/why-gold-stopped-trading-like-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Gold Stopped Trading Like Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Gold has spent the past week moving in a way that has surprised many traders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US and Iran are exchanging strikes. Oil prices have climbed back towards six-week highs. Historically, both developments would usually support gold as investors look for defensive assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, gold moved lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

December gold futures opened Wednesday at $4,377.20 before slipping to around $4,357.50<\/a> in early New York trading. Spot gold has fallen from a three-month high near $4,697 to below $4,300, marking a decline of almost 9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report (NFP)<\/a> now arrives with a lot of traders treating it as gold’s way out. The reasoning is familiar enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A weaker labour market could reduce pressure on the Fed to keep rates high. That could lower Treasury yields and support gold. But rates are only one part of the equation. Several other forces are still weighing on the metal, and Friday\u2019s report can only change one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How the Jobs Market became Gold\u2019s next test<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve has kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75%<\/a> since December 2025. Ahead of the September 16 meeting, the debate has shifted towards whether policymakers may raise rates further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That changes how markets interpret economic data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For much of the past two years, weaker jobs data was viewed as positive for gold because it increased expectations of future rate cuts. In September 2026, the situation is different. A stronger labour market could reinforce the case for higher rates, while weaker data could ease pressure on the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the focus on inflation during his Jackson Hole remarks<\/a>, keeping the possibility of further hikes open. Markets responded quickly, with implied September hike expectations rising from around 40% to between 66% and 70% within a week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 10-year Treasury yield<\/a> also climbed to 4.818% on Wednesday, its highest level since November 2023. Because gold does not generate interest income, higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forces behind Gold\u2019s 9% pullback<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The recent decline has mostly been explained through interest rate expectations. However, gold is also facing pressure from the dollar, real yields and renewed inflation concerns from energy markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n