{"id":47673,"date":"2026-05-26T03:17:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T03:17:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/sp-500-holds-highs-as-iran-deal-hopes-lift-risk\/"},"modified":"2026-05-26T03:17:56","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T03:17:56","slug":"sp-500-holds-highs-as-iran-deal-hopes-lift-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/analysis\/sp-500-holds-highs-as-iran-deal-hopes-lift-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"S&amp;P 500 Holds Highs as Iran Deal Hopes Lift Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/06\/Indices3-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-50394\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SP500 traded at <strong>7,530.65<\/strong>, down <strong>26.25<\/strong>, or <strong>0.35%<\/strong>, after reaching a session high of <strong>7,557.85<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nasdaq 100 futures rose <strong>0.83%<\/strong>, S&amp;P 500 futures gained <strong>0.62%<\/strong>, and Dow futures climbed <strong>0.59%<\/strong> at <strong>9.12 p.m. ET<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>WTI crude traded around <strong>$91.18<\/strong>, down <strong>5.6%<\/strong>, while Brent crude traded near <strong>$97.44<\/strong>, up <strong>1.35%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 closed Friday at <strong>7,473.47<\/strong>, up <strong>0.37%<\/strong>, extending its longest weekly winning streak since <strong>2023<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>US stock futures edged higher heading into Tuesday as traders priced a better chance of a US-Iran deal that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed <strong>0.83%<\/strong>, S&amp;P 500 futures rose <strong>0.62%<\/strong>, and Dow futures gained <strong>0.59%<\/strong> at <strong>9.12 p.m. ET<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Emerging-market stocks and currencies rose as oil prices declined on signs that the US and Iran were nearing a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IRHZd1iUr7\">https:\/\/t.co\/IRHZd1iUr7<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2058771609624703444?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart showed SP500 trading at <strong>7,530.65<\/strong>, down <strong>26.25<\/strong>, or <strong>0.35%<\/strong>, at <strong>05\/26 05:01:23 GMT+3<\/strong>. The session high stood at <strong>7,557.85<\/strong>, with a low of <strong>7,524.20<\/strong>, an open at <strong>7,557.10<\/strong>, and a close at <strong>7,556.90<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pullback looks more like digestion than a trend break. The index remains close to record levels after Friday\u2019s gains, when the S&amp;P 500 closed at <strong>7,473.47<\/strong>, up <strong>0.37%<\/strong>. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose <strong>0.58%<\/strong> to <strong>50,579.70<\/strong>, while the Nasdaq Composite added <strong>0.19%<\/strong> to <strong>26,343.97<\/strong>. US markets were shut on Monday for Memorial Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Iran Talks Lift Risk Appetite<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Equities drew support from signs that US-Iran negotiations are moving toward a framework that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains central to the market story because it carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, so even partial progress can shift inflation expectations, bond yields, and equity sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global stocks rose after Trump said talks to end the Iran war were progressing, while oil prices fell sharply on hopes of reduced disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US and Israeli jets struck a number of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, local media reported, hours after President Donald Trump had suggested negotiations with Tehran over an interim deal were progressing. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CuS5KjBZDQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/CuS5KjBZDQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2059063236222189584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump said negotiations with Iran were proceeding well, but he kept pressure on Tehran by warning that the alternative would be a return to heavier fighting. That tone keeps markets in a fragile relief phase. Traders are buying the chance of a deal, but they are not fully removing the war premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reports also suggest the US and Iran are working on a plan to <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/m3L4GmPozh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">reopen the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> about <strong>30 days<\/strong> after a deal is reached, with Iran clearing mines so ships can pass safely. At the same time, the US military conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran against missile sites and boats attempting to place mines. That split keeps traders alert to both outcomes: diplomacy can lower oil, but battlefield activity can quickly reverse the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed Risk Has Not Disappeared<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are also watching Kevin Warsh\u2019s first official day as Federal Reserve chair. Inflation concerns have already revived debate over whether the Fed may need to raise rates, rather than cut them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new Fed leadership inherits a difficult setup. Oil shocks have pushed inflation pressure higher, consumer sentiment has weakened, and officials are under pressure to show credibility on price stability. Warsh pledged to lead a reform-focused Fed as markets watched for how he would handle inflation and policy divisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh suggests he may take an Alan Greenspan-style approach at the central bank <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SefBDMknc3\">https:\/\/t.co\/SefBDMknc3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2058550105720946978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 24, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>10-year Treasury yield<\/strong> stood at <strong>4.504%<\/strong>, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT, rose about <strong>0.41%<\/strong> amid bullish sentiment. A stable bond market helps equities hold gains. A renewed rise in yields would make high-valuation technology stocks more exposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold slipped to around <strong>$4,542.57<\/strong> an ounce, showing that some safety demand faded as risk appetite improved. Still, gold remains high enough to show traders have not fully dismissed geopolitical and inflation risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Retail Earnings And Consumers Stay In Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500\u2019s next test goes beyond geopolitics. Retail earnings will show whether higher fuel prices and tighter financial conditions have started to bite US consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key issue is household resilience. Higher gasoline prices can drain disposable income, while higher rates can curb big-ticket purchases. If retail guidance weakens, traders may start to question whether the S&amp;P 500 can keep climbing on AI and energy relief alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">These tech stocks have seen bullish &#39;flag patterns&#39; recently, says Katie Stockton <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mfbEoYfINR\">https:\/\/t.co\/mfbEoYfINR<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBC\/status\/2058922971243147640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Friday\u2019s US market strength showed buyers still have confidence. The S&amp;P 500 posted its longest streak of weekly gains since <strong>2023<\/strong>, while the Dow reached a <strong>52-week high<\/strong>. That momentum gives the market support, but the next batch of earnings needs to confirm that demand has not cracked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 remains firmly in an uptrend, holding near fresh highs above the <strong>7,500<\/strong> mark despite a modest pullback during the latest session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Current Price:<\/strong> 7,530<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA5:<\/strong> 7,488<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA10:<\/strong> 7,458<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA20:<\/strong> 7,377<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/06\/image-33-1024x474.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-50993\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Price action continues to respect the rising short-term moving averages, with the MA5 and MA10 still stacked bullishly above the MA20. The rally from the April low near <strong>6,318<\/strong> remains intact, though momentum has begun to cool after the sharp breakout phase earlier this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent pause suggests traders may be taking profit ahead of key US inflation and Federal Reserve signals, especially as Treasury yields stabilise and markets reassess the timing of future rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate resistance sits near <strong>7,560\u20137,600<\/strong>, while support rests around <strong>7,450<\/strong>, followed by the stronger trend support zone near <strong>7,300<\/strong>. A clean break above current highs could reopen the path toward the <strong>7,650<\/strong> region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader structure stays bullish while price holds above the MA20 and macro risk sentiment remains supportive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>SP500 maintains a bullish short-term bias as long as it holds above <strong>7,487.93<\/strong> and <strong>7,377.48<\/strong>. A break above <strong>7,557.85<\/strong> would support a move toward <strong>7,663.48<\/strong>, especially if oil stays below <strong>$100<\/strong> and Iran talks keep moving toward a Hormuz reopening plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break below <strong>7,377.48<\/strong> would weaken the setup and suggest traders are taking profit after the longest weekly winning streak since <strong>2023<\/strong>. The next move depends on three signals: whether US-Iran talks produce a clear reopening timeline, whether oil stays near <strong>$91.18<\/strong> to <strong>$97.44<\/strong>, and whether Kevin Warsh\u2019s Fed gives markets reason to price fewer or more rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Indices<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">VT Markets<\/a> today.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Trader Questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p><strong>Why Are S&amp;P 500 Futures Rising?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S&amp;P 500 futures are rising as investors price in hopes of a US-Iran deal that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease energy-market stress. S&amp;P 500 futures were <strong>0.62%<\/strong> higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed <strong>0.83%<\/strong> and Dow futures rose <strong>0.59%<\/strong> at <strong>9.12 p.m. ET<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What Is The Current SP500 Price?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SP500 traded at <strong>7,530.65<\/strong>, down <strong>26.25<\/strong>, or <strong>0.35%<\/strong>. The session high was <strong>7,557.85<\/strong>, with a low of <strong>7,524.20<\/strong>, an open at <strong>7,557.10<\/strong>, and a close at <strong>7,556.90<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why Is The Strait Of Hormuz Important For The S&amp;P 500?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Strait of Hormuz is important because it carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments. A reopening would ease energy supply risk, lower inflation pressure, and support risk appetite. That can help US equities, especially consumer, transport, industrial, and technology stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How Are US-Iran Talks Affecting Stocks?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US-Iran talks are supporting stocks by raising hopes that the Middle East energy shock may ease. Trump said negotiations with Iran <strong>\u201care proceeding nicely\u201d<\/strong>, but also warned that it would be <strong>\u201ca Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all\u201d<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why Are Investors Still Cautious?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors remain cautious because the US-Iran deal is not final and military risks remain active. Reports suggest the Strait of Hormuz could reopen about <strong>30 days<\/strong> after a deal, but the US also carried out self-defence strikes on southern Iran against missile sites and boats attempting to place mines.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P 500 steadies near highs as Iran deal hopes, lower oil, Fed risk and tech momentum guide traders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}