GBP\/USD rose on Friday as demand for the US Dollar eased, linked to improved risk appetite and reports of a possible second round of US\u2013Iran talks. A three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon also supported market mood.<\/p>\n
The pair traded at 1.3498, up 0.24%, after rebounding from a daily low of 1.3453. Reports said Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to present a proposal for talks with the US, and meet Pakistani mediators with a small delegation.<\/p>\n
US data showed weaker household sentiment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell to 49.8 in April from 53.3 in March, the lowest since 1978.<\/p>\n
US one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 3.8%, while five-year expectations increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Prime Terminal data showed traders do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026.<\/p>\n
In the UK, core Retail Sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in March after -0.6% in February, helped by petrol sales. Headline Retail Sales increased 1.7% year-on-year, above forecasts but slightly below the prior reading.<\/p>\n
Next week includes the Fed decision, US GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and jobs data, plus the Bank of England rate decision. Technical levels cited include 1.3516, 1.3411, 1.2986, and 1.3866.<\/p>\n
The current optimism around US-Iran talks is weakening the US dollar, pushing GBP\/USD toward the 1.3500 level. This improved risk appetite suggests a short-term trend that could continue if geopolitical news remains positive. Traders should watch this narrative closely, as it is the main driver of dollar weakness.<\/p>\n
Given the bullish technical picture, with the price holding firmly above the 1.3411 support area, we could see a further move higher. Buying call options on GBP\/USD with strike prices approaching the 1.3866 resistance level might be a viable strategy to capitalize on this momentum. This allows traders to profit from the upward move while defining their maximum risk.<\/p>\n
However, we must be cautious about the dire state of the US consumer. The University of Michigan sentiment reading of 49.8 is at a historical crisis point, lower than what we saw during the post-pandemic inflation shock in June 2022. Such pessimism eventually translates into lower spending, which could severely damage the US economy.<\/p>\n
This weak sentiment is happening alongside stubbornly high inflation expectations of 4.7%, putting the Federal Reserve in a very difficult position. We saw a similar dynamic with sticky inflation back in 2023, which forced the Fed to remain aggressive and ultimately strengthened the dollar. The market’s assumption that the dollar will stay weak might be premature if inflation data remains hot.<\/p>\n
On the UK side, the strong March retail sales report is a welcome sign but may not signal a new trend. We saw significant volatility in UK economic data all through 2025, so one good print boosted by fuel sales isn’t enough to confirm sustained economic strength. The pound’s rally seems to be more about dollar weakness than genuine sterling power.<\/p>\n
With both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England set to announce interest rate decisions next week, volatility is almost guaranteed. The current upward trend in GBP\/USD could reverse sharply on a hawkish Fed statement or a surprisingly cautious tone from the Bank of England. Therefore, buying some cheap, out-of-the-money put options could serve as a prudent hedge against an abrupt shift in sentiment.<\/p>\n
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