{"id":29421,"date":"2025-09-29T05:39:29","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T05:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=29421"},"modified":"2025-09-29T05:39:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T05:39:29","slug":"week-ahead-gdp-rebounds-meets-policy-crossroads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-gdp-rebounds-meets-policy-crossroads\/","title":{"rendered":"Week ahead: GDP rebounds meets policy crossroads"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the US, Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in two years, while jobless claims fell to a two-month low. Federal Reserve officials expressed diverging views on the policy outlook, with some urging caution on rate cuts and others shifting focus toward employment. Calls to reform the Fed&#8217;s benchmark rate surfaced, highlighting liquidity advantages of the TGCR. Globally, geopolitical tensions rose as Russia extended fuel export bans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">KEY INDICATORS<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">US macroeconomic Data <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US GDP growth for Q2 2025 was revised sharply to +3.8% from the previous estimate of +3.3%, marking the highest level in two years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment claims <span style=\"color: initial\">for the week ending 20 September 2025 came in at 218,000, the lowest since the week of 19 July 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Federal Reserve commentaries<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dallas Fed President Logan a<span style=\"color: initial\">dvocates replacing the Federal Funds Rate with the more liquid Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR)<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed officials having mixed views on policy path<ul><li>Fed Governor Bowman: Shift focus from inflation to employment.Kansas City Fed President Schmid: Favours more aggressive balance sheet reduction.Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Concerned about premature rate cuts based on slowing jobs data; inflation trends still uncertain.<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>San Francisco Fed President Daly: Warns against fully moving to a neutral stance, citing risks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Russia-Ukraine conflict<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Russian diesel and petrol export bans extended to 31 December 2025<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weboffice-sg.feishu-3rd-party-services.com\/api\/v3\/office\/copy\/aDFyM2ExYTI0MEFvTUVLTktEejArTVRQdVRvcGx2ODc4WHhjT0U0RC91Zy8vS3RKWStVNkdDTU1YaGdPSXBvNm9ISWsyRW5MTkxEME1PV1VvUTF1a0t5OUVVOWxlL2xkRUY2V2RVdzc4WStRalpWcmd5Z1FiOWJMYWFtdlQyVitsQ0o2L1l6Zm1tMVl2QXNoNjJxQU5TNWtLNFZ5L0FhL0VSRDhINkNjNXN6aFpIdFNKMVV6STBQWnlwWDhaZ05Kc0lWMDY3UlFRa0JQSVhKL0ptaDNwdnN6SlZNUE5BVGttd01BNVhtdnNxdGJtUWs0TjJmcWJtMStxTFdaZ0picktid0wyc1pCaTJ1MzAySVhUVk9DS0tuK0h5TXdUTGc9\/attach\/object\/da3d8104330a4bbc1b2917bb4cb25b728bb17d03?\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weboffice-sg.feishu-3rd-party-services.com\/api\/v3\/office\/copy\/aDFyM2ExYTI0MEFvTUVLTktEejArTVRQdVRvcGx2ODc4WHhjT0U0RC91Zy8vS3RKWStVNkdDTU1YaGdPSXBvNm9ISWsyRW5MTkxEME1PV1VvUTF1a0t5OUVVOWxlL2xkRUY2V2RVdzc4WStRalpWcmd5Z1FiOWJMYWFtdlQyVitsQ0o2L1l6Zm1tMVl2QXNoNjJxQU5TNWtLNFZ5L0FhL0VSRDhINkNjNXN6aFpIdFNKMVV6STBQWnlwWDhaZ05Kc0lWMDY3UlFRa0JQSVhKL0ptaDNwdnN6SlZNUE5BVGttd01BNVhtdnNxdGJtUWs0TjJmcWJtMStxTFdaZ0picktid0wyc1pCaTJ1MzAySVhUVk9DS0tuK0h5TXdUTGc9\/attach\/object\/aa0127de2a3ec582bce55689d8a3bd3d40c07f73?\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weboffice-sg.feishu-3rd-party-services.com\/api\/v3\/office\/copy\/aDFyM2ExYTI0MEFvTUVLTktEejArTVRQdVRvcGx2ODc4WHhjT0U0RC91Zy8vS3RKWStVNkdDTU1YaGdPSXBvNm9ISWsyRW5MTkxEME1PV1VvUTF1a0t5OUVVOWxlL2xkRUY2V2RVdzc4WStRalpWcmd5Z1FiOWJMYWFtdlQyVitsQ0o2L1l6Zm1tMVl2QXNoNjJxQU5TNWtLNFZ5L0FhL0VSRDhINkNjNXN6aFpIdFNKMVV6STBQWnlwWDhaZ05Kc0lWMDY3UlFRa0JQSVhKL0ptaDNwdnN6SlZNUE5BVGttd01BNVhtdnNxdGJtUWs0TjJmcWJtMStxTFdaZ0picktid0wyc1pCaTJ1MzAySVhUVk9DS0tuK0h5TXdUTGc9\/attach\/object\/cfc7b50b3f1a28db891ee75a0bcaa2d3a150bc13?\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">MARKET MOVERS<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">EUR\/USD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weboffice-sg.feishu-3rd-party-services.com\/api\/v3\/office\/copy\/aDFyM2ExYTI0MEFvTUVLTktEejArTVRQdVRvcGx2ODc4WHhjT0U0RC91Zy8vS3RKWStVNkdDTU1YaGdPSXBvNm9ISWsyRW5MTkxEME1PV1VvUTF1a0t5OUVVOWxlL2xkRUY2V2RVdzc4WStRalpWcmd5Z1FiOWJMYWFtdlQyVitsQ0o2L1l6Zm1tMVl2QXNoNjJxQU5TNWtLNFZ5L0FhL0VSRDhINkNjNXN6aFpIdFNKMVV6STBQWnlwWDhaZ05Kc0lWMDY3UlFRa0JQSVhKL0ptaDNwdnN6SlZNUE5BVGttd01BNVhtdnNxdGJtUWs0TjJmcWJtMStxTFdaZ0picktid0wyc1pCaTJ1MzAySVhUVk9DS0tuK0h5TXdUTGc9\/attach\/object\/7f9ee752c3cfd5214f27310485e1ce39c33188c5?\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Primary trend:<\/strong> EUR\/USD keeps a medium-term bearish bias, with price action suggesting a potential top. Broader outlook favoring downside.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support:<\/strong> 1.1635<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance:<\/strong> 1.1735 could offer selling opportunities, with the broader outlook favoring downside.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long strategy<\/strong>: Consider tactical longs if dips hold above support at 1.1635, targeting 1.1710 &#8211; 1.1735 with tight risk controls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short strategy<\/strong>: Sell into rallies near 1.1735, aiming for 1.1635 and 1.161.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Range trade:<\/strong> Buy near the 1.161 support and sell into the 1.1735 resistance, with stops kept tight given the prevailing bearish bias.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">GBP\/JPY<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weboffice-sg.feishu-3rd-party-services.com\/api\/v3\/office\/copy\/aDFyM2ExYTI0MEFvTUVLTktEejArTVRQdVRvcGx2ODc4WHhjT0U0RC91Zy8vS3RKWStVNkdDTU1YaGdPSXBvNm9ISWsyRW5MTkxEME1PV1VvUTF1a0t5OUVVOWxlL2xkRUY2V2RVdzc4WStRalpWcmd5Z1FiOWJMYWFtdlQyVitsQ0o2L1l6Zm1tMVl2QXNoNjJxQU5TNWtLNFZ5L0FhL0VSRDhINkNjNXN6aFpIdFNKMVV6STBQWnlwWDhaZ05Kc0lWMDY3UlFRa0JQSVhKL0ptaDNwdnN6SlZNUE5BVGttd01BNVhtdnNxdGJtUWs0TjJmcWJtMStxTFdaZ0picktid0wyc1pCaTJ1MzAySVhUVk9DS0tuK0h5TXdUTGc9\/attach\/object\/c4de5f2bcea6a7302d2cad03ece819d6eed31aa9?\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Primary trend:<\/strong> A bullish bias retains, with price action suggesting a potential bottom near 199.5.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support:<\/strong> 199.5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance:<\/strong> 201.1 &#8211; 201.5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long strategy<\/strong>: Buy on dips toward 199.5 support, targeting 201.1 and 201.5.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short strategy<\/strong>: Consider tactical shorts if price fails to hold above the 201.1 &#8211; 201.5 resistance, looking for a move back toward 199.5 support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Range trading: <\/strong>Buy near the 199.50 support and sell into the 201.50 resistance, with stops kept tight given the bullish bias.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">XAU\/USD<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/weboffice-sg.feishu-3rd-party-services.com\/api\/v3\/office\/copy\/aDFyM2ExYTI0MEFvTUVLTktEejArTVRQdVRvcGx2ODc4WHhjT0U0RC91Zy8vS3RKWStVNkdDTU1YaGdPSXBvNm9ISWsyRW5MTkxEME1PV1VvUTF1a0t5OUVVOWxlL2xkRUY2V2RVdzc4WStRalpWcmd5Z1FiOWJMYWFtdlQyVitsQ0o2L1l6Zm1tMVl2QXNoNjJxQU5TNWtLNFZ5L0FhL0VSRDhINkNjNXN6aFpIdFNKMVV6STBQWnlwWDhaZ05Kc0lWMDY3UlFRa0JQSVhKL0ptaDNwdnN6SlZNUE5BVGttd01BNVhtdnNxdGJtUWs0TjJmcWJtMStxTFdaZ0picktid0wyc1pCaTJ1MzAySVhUVk9DS0tuK0h5TXdUTGc9\/attach\/object\/aa258c7fd22a6eb345b368a62626ddfc504b560c?\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Primary trend:<\/strong> Hovering near all-time highs with a neutral to slightly bearish medium-term bias whereby short-term economic data could trigger volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support:<\/strong> 3680 &#8211; 3700<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance:<\/strong> 3822<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long strategy<\/strong>: Consider tactical longs if dips hold above 3700 &#8211; 3680, targeting 3750 &#8211; 3780 with tight stops.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short strategy<\/strong>: Sell into rallies near 3822, aiming for 3675 first, with potential extension to 3646.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Range trading:<\/strong> Buy near the 3680 support, sell near the 3822 resistance, with stops kept tight due to indecision and limited momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">NEWS HEADLINES<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">US dollar<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The US Dollar Index<span style=\"color: initial\"> surged sharply on Thursday following the significant upward revision to Q2 GDP.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Precious Metals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Gold r<span style=\"color: initial\">emained volatile, testing the $3,760 level multiple times intraday but failed to hold above it.<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Silver r<span style=\"color: initial\">allied strongly, breaking above $45 and hitting a new high since May 2011.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Oil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span style=\"color: initial\">Early losses were reversed during the US trading session, with the WTI crude reclaiming the $65 level<\/span> and the Brent crude rose to $68.72 per barrel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Equities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the US, the <span style=\"color: initial\">Dow Jones fell 0.38%, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.5%<\/span> and the Nasdaq Composite also dropped 0.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In Europe, the <span style=\"color: initial\">DAX 30 fell 0.56%, the FTSE 100 (UK) declined 0.39%<\/span> and the Euro Stoxx 50 is down by 0.3%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the US, Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in two years, while jobless claims fell to a two-month low. Federal Reserve officials expressed diverging views on the policy outlook, with some urging caution on rate cuts and others shifting focus toward employment. Calls to reform the Fed&#8217;s benchmark rate surfaced, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-gdp-rebounds-meets-policy-crossroads\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in 2 years, while jobless claims fell to 2-month low. 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