{"id":23741,"date":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23741"},"modified":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","slug":"week-ahead-fed-signals-september-easing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-fed-signals-september-easing\/","title":{"rendered":"Week ahead: Fed signals September easing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23747\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/09\/FED-2-1.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week, markets focused on the Federal Reserve\u2019s dovish signals and rising geopolitical tensions. Fed Governor Waller backed a 25 bps rate cut in September, with further easing likely over the next three to six months. However, political risks grew as Tim Cook sued Trump and named Powell as a defendant, raising questions about Fed independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>KEY INDICATORS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fed policy turning dovish, but political risks to independence are rising<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tim Cook filed a lawsuit against Trump over the dismissal controversy, with Powell also named as a defendant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Biden-nominated judge will hold a hearing this Friday, with the case expected to reach the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump\u2019s Fed nominee Milan is likely to be confirmed before the September decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 bps cut in September and expects further cuts over the next three to six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IMF official: Markets still trust Fed independence, but risks remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ECB\u2019s Rehn: Trump\u2019s pressure on the Fed\u2019s independence could have major global consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Trade tensions persist, limited signs of de-escalation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The EU proposes scrapping some US tariffs to secure lower car tariffs from Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India\u2019s Russian oil imports in September are <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/exclusive-india-russian-oil-imports-103602322.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"expected to rise by 10\u201320%\">expected to rise by 10\u201320%<\/a> month-on-month despite US threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US plans to impose flat parcel tariffs of $80\u2013$200 within six months, later shifting to specific rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">German Chancellor Merz: No meeting between Zelensky and Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe proposes a 40 km frontline buffer zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political and economic events<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US non-farm payrolls report expected Friday, forecast at about 78,000 new jobs; weak data could push the Fed closer to rate cuts and is highly watched as a key labour market signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed Governor Waller backs rate cuts, expecting 125\u2013150 bps over the next three to six months; markets price in a 75\u201385% chance of a September cut, with further easing likely in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key economic releases this week include PMIs, ISM manufacturing, eurozone inflation, and Brazil GDP; data will gauge global growth and inflation pressures and may shift market sentiment ahead of payrolls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jim O\u2019Neill named CDC head, prompting resignations and backlash; Trump ends Harris\u2019s Secret Service protection, drawing official criticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">European Council President Ant\u00f3nio Costa visits multiple EU states on the EU \u201ctour des capitales.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SCO summit gathers 20+ world leaders; China highlights regional influence with North Korea, while Xi Jinping hosts Putin and Kim Jong-un at a Beijing military parade, signalling strengthened anti-US alliances in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"827\" height=\"856\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/20250829-172300.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23742\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/20250829-172300.png 827w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/20250829-172300-290x300.png 290w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/20250829-172300-768x795.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/20250829-172300-386x400.png 386w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/20250829-172300-193x200.png 193w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 827px) 100vw, 827px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>MARKET MOVERS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"592\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-1024x592.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23743\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-1024x592.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-768x444.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-500x289.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-400x231.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-350x202.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025-200x116.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/EURUSD_signal_29_08_2025.png 1504w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Primary trend: <\/strong>Bullish, though a short pullback may test support<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support level: <\/strong>1.1620 (secondary: 1.1580)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance zone: <\/strong>1.1680\u20131.1685<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long strategy: <\/strong>Buy on dips above 1.1620, target 1.1680\u20131.1685<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short strategy: <\/strong>Sell near resistance at 1.1685, target 1.1620 with potential extension towards 1.1580<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Range trade: <\/strong>Buy near 1.1620 and sell near 1.1685 if price consolidates in this band<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risk management: <\/strong>Keep stops tight given the bearish bias<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>GBP\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"596\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-1024x596.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23744\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-1024x596.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-768x447.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-500x291.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-400x233.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-350x204.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025-200x116.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/GBPJPY_signal_29_08_2025.png 1499w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Primary trend: <\/strong>Bullish, with recent pullbacks showing signs of exhaustion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support level: <\/strong>198.20 (secondary: 198.20\u2013198.70)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance zone: <\/strong>199.40\u2013199.70<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long strategy: <\/strong>Buy on dips near 198.20, target 199.40 with potential extension to 199.70<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short strategy: <\/strong>Consider tactical shorts if price spikes into 199.40\u2013199.70, target 198.70 with potential extension to 198.20<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Range trade: <\/strong>Buy near 198.20 and sell near 199.70 if price consolidates in this band<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risk management: <\/strong>Use tight stops given prevailing bullish momentum<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"431\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-1024x431.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-1024x431.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-768x323.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-1536x646.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-2048x862.png 2048w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-500x210.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-400x168.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-350x147.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/08\/USDJPY_signal_29_08_2025-200x84.png 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Primary trend:<\/strong> Mixed short-term range, with rallies sold and dips supported; medium-term bias remains bearish<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support level:<\/strong> 146.80 (secondary: 144.00\u2013146.80)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance zone:<\/strong> 148.50 (secondary: 148.00\u2013148.50)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Long strategy:<\/strong> Consider tactical longs if price holds above 146.80, target 148.00\u2013148.50; place protective stops beneath support<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short strategy:<\/strong> Sell on rallies towards 148.50, target 146.80 with potential extension to 144.10; use stops above resistance to manage risk<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Range trade:<\/strong> Buy near 144.00\u2013146.80 and sell near 148.00\u2013148.50 if price consolidates in this band<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risk management:<\/strong> Keep stops tight given the broader bearish bias<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>NEWS HEADLINES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Dollar and bond markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US dollar index fell 0.29% to 97.859, rebounding intraday on stronger GDP and jobless claims data but closing lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year at 4.209% and the 2-year at 3.637%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commodities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spot gold rose for a third consecutive session, up 0.58% to $3,417.08\/oz, briefly topping $3,420.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Silver gained 1.18% to $39.05\/oz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices recovered as hopes for a Zelensky\u2013Putin meeting faded, with WTI up 0.69% to $64.09\/bbl. and Brent up 0.68% to $67.62\/bbl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Equities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US stocks edged higher, with the Dow +0.16%, S&amp;P 500 +0.3%, and Nasdaq +0.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notable movers included Nvidia -0.8% and Google +2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.14%, with XPeng -3%, Alibaba -2%, and Trip.com +14.9% post earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">European markets were mixed, with DAX -0.03%, FTSE 100 -0.42%, and Euro Stoxx 50 +0.07%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=market_forecast&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week, markets focused on the Federal Reserve\u2019s dovish signals and rising geopolitical tensions. Fed Governor Waller backed a 25 bps rate cut in September, with further easing likely over the next three to six months. However, political risks grew as Tim Cook sued Trump and named Powell as a defendant, raising questions about Fed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-fed-signals-september-easing\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":23747,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This week, markets focus on the Fed\u2019s September easing amid political risks, rising trade tensions, and key economic and geopolitical events shaping sentiment.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" 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