{"id":23389,"date":"2025-07-16T07:03:07","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T07:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23389"},"modified":"2025-07-16T07:03:07","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T07:03:07","slug":"oil-steadies-after-sharp-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/analysis\/oil-steadies-after-sharp-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil steadies after sharp decline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23391\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/13.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets have faced a choppy week, with hopes for stronger global demand clashing against rising supply and lingering uncertainties. This analysis explores the key factors shaping sentiment and what they could mean for oil prices in the days ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Oil prices claw back losses but remain under pressure<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After dropping by over 3% earlier in the week, oil prices managed to regain some ground on Wednesday, with WTI crude stabilising just below the $67 per barrel mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite remaining firmly negative on the week, the modest rebound offered a short-lived relief for traders navigating a turbulent July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Here\u2019s the latest news and analysis on the oil market <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3WSAti6noY\">https:\/\/t.co\/3WSAti6noY<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1945274887595073744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 16, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support came from increased seasonal fuel demand in the US and encouraging economic data from China, although the foundation remains fragile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recovery followed a report showing a rise in US petrol consumption, largely driven by strong summer travel activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This uptick in domestic demand, combined with China&#8217;s better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth, temporarily soothed concerns that the world\u2019s top two energy consumers were losing appetite for crude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While these factors encouraged some cautious buying, lifting WTI from a session low of $66.21, the momentum behind the rebound was limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market participants remained cautious ahead of further inventory reports and wider global economic indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude prices are attempting to recover from a steep decline\u2014from above $69 down to around $66.20\u2014fuelled by fresh global growth concerns and a strengthening US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Technical charts show a sustained downward trend, bottoming out at $66.218 before bargain hunters began to test the waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"443\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-1024x443.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23390\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-1024x443.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-300x130.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-768x332.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-500x216.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-400x173.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-350x151.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14-200x87.jpeg 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/image-14.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Picture: Oil struggles to bounce after tumbling nearly 3%, pressured by weak China data and rising US stockpiles, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263?mt=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD is beginning to level out just below the zero line, hinting at a potential momentum shift, although a decisive bullish crossover is yet to appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the convergence of moving averages suggests the selling pressure may be easing, at least temporarily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, resistance remains strong at the psychologically important $67 level and again near $67.60.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For any significant recovery to take shape, buyers will need to break above these key zones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Global demand hopes meet rising supply reality<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>From a macroeconomic perspective, there is still a valid case for cautious optimism. The latest monthly update from OPEC+ presented a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-07-15\/opec-partly-pushes-back-against-reports-of-saudi-output-surge\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"more upbeat view for the second half of 2025\">more upbeat view for the second half of 2025<\/a>, citing improved growth prospects in India, Brazil, and China as key drivers for increased oil demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This added to ongoing recovery narratives from the US and EU, bolstering the view that global demand could soon catch up with supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s economic data surprised to the upside. Despite continued concerns around trade tensions and structural headwinds, the country managed to exceed growth expectations in the second quarter\u2014providing a confidence boost to energy markets after weeks of uncertainty caused by weak import figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, not all news favoured the bulls. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a massive 19.1 million-barrel surge in crude oil inventories\u2014the largest weekly build on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This unexpected increase dealt a blow to those anticipating stockpile drawdowns during the height of the US driving season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the near term, it appears supply is outpacing demand, leaving the market in a state of imbalance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While long-term outlooks remain encouraging, immediate oversupply continues to weigh on sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Geopolitical risks stir, but no major shake-up yet<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Geopolitical developments also influenced oil markets this week. A drone attack in Iraq briefly halted production at the Sarsang field, injecting a minor risk premium into oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, broader fears of a major supply disruption were tempered by former President Trump\u2019s diplomatic move\u2014issuing a 50-day ultimatum to Russia rather than opting for immediate sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This decision eased pressure on Russian oil exports, at least for the time being.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Donald Trump threatened to hit Russia with stiff economic penalties if it doesn&#39;t end hostilities with Ukraine within 50 days. Will it work? <br><br>\ud83c\udfa7 Tune in on July 16 at 9am ET: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dqyqoZUvVQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/dqyqoZUvVQ<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LAzc5ezhfc\">pic.twitter.com\/LAzc5ezhfc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1945254844232532416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result is a conflicted market environment, where longer-term bullish drivers are offset by bearish short-term fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude remains fragile and acutely sensitive to new data releases, with sentiment swinging wildly from headline to headline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless a clear technical breakout occurs or a major geopolitical event disrupts supply chains, oil prices are likely to remain range-bound heading into the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil markets have faced a choppy week, with hopes for stronger global demand clashing against rising supply and lingering uncertainties. This analysis explores the key factors shaping sentiment and what they could mean for oil prices in the days ahead. Oil prices claw back losses but remain under pressure After dropping by over 3% earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/analysis\/oil-steadies-after-sharp-decline\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":23391,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23389"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23389\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}