{"id":23324,"date":"2025-07-07T09:07:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T09:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23324"},"modified":"2025-07-07T09:07:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T09:07:00","slug":"week-ahead-markets-eye-9-july-tariff-deadline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-markets-eye-9-july-tariff-deadline\/","title":{"rendered":"Week ahead: Markets eye 9 July tariff deadline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/8-2.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Entering mid-July, markets face a transitional phase as trade policy uncertainties, central bank commentary, and macroeconomic data shape sentiment. With the US tariff pause set to <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/06\/economy\/reciprocal-tariff-pause-expires\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"expire on 9 July\">expire on 9 July<\/a>, investors remain cautious. This week\u2019s influences include the Fed&#8217;s July meeting minutes, the UK&#8217;s CPI release, and shifting flows across global assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>KEY INDICATORS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Foreign exchange market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dollar expected to remain soft in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over 80% of analysts forecast further dollar weakness, driven by ongoing uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Foreign investors are increasing USD hedging on US stocks, signalling caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Commodities &amp; equities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil rally stabilises, with prices expected to average $67\u201368 in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US equity funds saw a $31.6 billion inflow last week, reflecting strong investor confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors are awaiting the expiry of the US tariff pause on 9 July, which could impact market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US equities face pressure from tariff uncertainties and concerns over Fed independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Asian markets &amp; key events<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hong Kong stocks surged 21% year-to-date, bolstered by mainland Chinese inflows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Foreign investors are increasingly favouring Asian markets, supporting Chinese and regional equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>MARKET MOVERS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>XAU\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-1024x500.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23325\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-1024x500.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-768x375.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-500x244.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-400x195.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-350x171.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044-200x98.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-145044.png 1478w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Technical breakout:<\/strong> Gold remains range-bound with key resistance at $3,355\u2013$3,375 and support near $3,335\u2013$3,300. A valid breakout above $3,375 would signal bullish momentum, while a drop below $3,300 would suggest a bearish shift.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Target projection (bullish):<\/strong> A breakout above $3,375 targets $3,400\u2013$3,415, with potential to extend to $3,450\u2013$3,500.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Target projection (bearish):<\/strong> A break below $3,300 opens the path to $3,275\u2013$3,260, with further downside towards $3,240\u2013$3,220.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Opening expectation:<\/strong> Gold is expected to open near $3,335\u2013$3,345, supported by safe-haven flows and a slightly softer USD following economic data releases and tariff headlines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Primary support zone:<\/strong> $3,335\u2013$3,330 (recent daily consolidation area).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Secondary support zone:<\/strong> $3,300\u2013$3,295 (lower triangle\/channel support).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tertiary support zone:<\/strong> $3,275\u2013$3,260 (prior range lows and Fibonacci area).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategy (bullish approach): <\/strong>Buy on a breakout above $3,375 with targets at $3,400 and $3,415\u2013$3,450.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategy (bearish approach):<\/strong> Short on a breakdown below $3,300 with targets at $3,275\u2013$3,260, extending to $3,240\u2013$3,220.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stop-loss level:<\/strong> Below $3,330 for bullish positions; above $3,385 for bearish positions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Key catalysts this week:<\/strong> US inflation data (PPI\/PCE), Fed minutes, tariff headlines tied to the 9 July deadline, and safe-haven flows from global risk events.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"501\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-1024x501.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23326\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-1024x501.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-768x375.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-500x244.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-400x196.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-350x171.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706-200x98.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151706.png 1477w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Technical breakout:<\/strong> EUR\/USD is currently consolidating beneath its recent peak at 1.1836\u20131.1850. A valid breakout above 1.1836\u20131.1850 would confirm a bullish trend continuation, while a breakdown below 1.1680\u20131.1700 would shift the bias to bearish, with a move toward deeper support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Target projection (bullish):<\/strong> A breakout above 1.1836\u20131.1850 targets 1.1875\u20131.1900, with potential to extend to 1.2000\u20131.2200 by year-end.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Target projection (bearish):<\/strong> A break below 1.1680 opens the path to 1.1635\u20131.1670, with further downside towards 1.1439\u20131.1465.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Opening expectation:<\/strong> EUR\/USD is expected to open near 1.1770\u20131.1785, supported by continued dollar weakness and reduced summer volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Primary support zone:<\/strong> 1.1680\u20131.1700 (crucial short-term support and recent convergence point).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Secondary support zone:<\/strong> 1.1635\u20131.1670 (earlier consolidation and pullback area).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tertiary support zone:<\/strong> 1.1439\u20131.1465 (deeper Fibonacci\/wedge base if prices erode significantly).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategy (bullish approach):<\/strong> Buy on a breakout above 1.1836 with targets at 1.1875\u20131.1900, extending to 1.2000\u20131.2200.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategy (bearish approach):<\/strong> Short on a breakdown below 1.1680 with targets at 1.1635\u20131.1670, extending to 1.1439\u20131.1465.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stop-loss level:<\/strong> Below 1.1680 for bullish positions; above 1.1850 for bearish positions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Key catalysts this week:<\/strong> US FOMC minutes, tariff headline risks\u2014especially with the 9 July deadline approaching, European retail sales, and German industrial production, which could impact ECB policy outlook.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Crude Oil WTI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"497\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-1024x497.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23327\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-1024x497.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-768x373.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-500x243.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-400x194.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-350x170.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712-200x97.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2025\/07\/20250707-151712.png 1478w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Technical breakout:<\/strong> WTI is consolidating just below its recent high around $68\u2013$68.50, forming a bullish pennant. A breakout above $68.50\u2013$69.00 would confirm renewed bullish momentum.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Target projection (bullish):<\/strong> A breakout above $68.50\u2013$69.00 targets $70.00\u2013$71.00, with potential to extend to $75.00+ if supported by political risk or supply news.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Target projection (bearish):<\/strong> A breakdown below $65.60\u2013$65.80 opens the path to $63.70\u2013$64.00, with further downside towards $61.80\u2013$62.00.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Opening expectation:<\/strong> Oil is expected to open in the $66.50\u2013$67.00 range, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and steady demand data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Primary support zone:<\/strong> $65.60\u2013$65.80 (base of the current range and weekly pivot).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Secondary support zone:<\/strong> $63.70\u2013$64.00 (lower bound of consolidation).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tertiary support zone:<\/strong> $61.80\u2013$62.00 (long-term support zone if weakness extends).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategy (bullish approach):<\/strong> Buy on a breakout above $68.50 with targets at $70.00 and $71.00\u2013$75.00+.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strategy (bearish approach):<\/strong> Short on a breakdown below $65.60 with targets at $63.70\u2013$64.00, extending to $61.80\u2013$62.00.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stop-loss level:<\/strong> Below $65.80 for bullish positions; above $68.50 for bearish positions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Key catalysts this week:<\/strong> US inflation data (PPI\/PCE), FOMC minutes, tariff headlines tied to the 9 July deadline, and geopolitical risks impacting oil prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>NEWS HEADLINES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade tensions rise ahead of key deadline<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump dismissed Elon Musk\u2019s new \u201cAmerica Party\u201d as \u201cridiculous,\u201d escalating political polarisation ahead of trade talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The White House confirmed tariff notification letters will be sent by 9 July to countries including India, Korea, and Indonesia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US trade deal talks continued under pressure, with last-minute efforts focused on Asia amid widening global uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dollar weakens as trade fog builds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar hovered near multi-year lows as traders awaited clarity on upcoming tariff actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>India\u2019s rupee dropped to \u20b985.70 per USD, reflecting broader weakness across Asian currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Markets react to shifting trade signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices declined after OPEC+ raised output and geopolitical risk premiums faded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>London Metal Exchange (LME) trading volumes surged to a decade high on tariff-driven volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European equities traded flat, reflecting caution over US trade uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asian markets dipped as tariff delays and oil weakness weighed on sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gulf equities edged higher on optimism around extended US tariff reprieves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thailand reported its third straight month of deflation, reinforcing regional dovish outlooks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Entering mid-July, markets face a transitional phase as trade policy uncertainties, central bank commentary, and macroeconomic data shape sentiment. With the US tariff pause set to expire on 9 July, investors remain cautious. This week\u2019s influences include the Fed&#8217;s July meeting minutes, the UK&#8217;s CPI release, and shifting flows across global assets. KEY INDICATORS Foreign <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-markets-eye-9-july-tariff-deadline\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":23328,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23324\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}