{"id":23049,"date":"2025-03-31T13:50:12","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T13:50:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17618"},"modified":"2025-03-31T13:50:12","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T13:50:12","slug":"forex-market-analysis-31-march-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-31-march-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex market analysis: 31 March 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/03\/45-1-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17624\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As March comes to a close, markets are closely monitoring economic signals, central bank guidance, and global trade tensions. Concerns over US tariff policies have sparked a risk-off sentiment, driving gains in precious metals like gold, while oil and stock markets in the US and Europe saw notable declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>KEY INDICATORS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US economic data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>The core PCE price index for February exceeded market expectations in both annual and monthly terms.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>This has led traders to continue betting on two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the first cut expected in July.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fed&#8217;s Daly on future rate cuts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>Federal Reserve\u2019s Daly suggested that two rate cuts in 2025 would be a reasonable expectation.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>She emphasised the need to adopt a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy, allowing industries time to adjust to tariffs.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trump\u2019s remarks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub><strong>Greenland:<\/strong> Trump reiterated that he would not rule out the use of military force to acquire Greenland.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub><strong>Relations with Putin:<\/strong> He expressed anger over Putin\u2019s recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Zelensky but still maintains good relations with Russia and plans to communicate with Putin again this week.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub><strong>Russia sanctions:<\/strong> Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil, ranging from 25% to 50%, if no agreement is reached with Russia.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub><strong>Iran:<\/strong> Trump warned that if Iran does not reach a nuclear deal with the US, military action and secondary tariffs on Iranian products would follow.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/03\/Picture1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17619\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>MARKET MOVERS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>XAU\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/03\/20250331-144332-1024x452.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17622\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>Price action has resulted in a new all-time high of 3127.8.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>There are no clear signs suggesting that the upward trend is nearing its end.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The risk\/reward ratio is unfavourable for entering a buy position at the current level.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>We anticipate a temporary pullback.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The 20-hour EMA is at 3092.5.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>Trading volume is increasing.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade opportunity:<\/strong> Target 1: 3164.5 \/\/ Target 2: 3174.5 \/\/ Expires: 1 April 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/03\/20250331-144228-1-1024x424.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17623\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>Ended a streak of six consecutive negative daily performances.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>Successfully broke above the wedge formation.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The formation\u2019s measured move target is 1.0955.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The preferred strategy is to buy on pullbacks.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The medium-term outlook remains bullish.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade opportunity:<\/strong> Target 1: 1.0955 \/\/ Target 2: 1.1105 \/\/ Expires: 1 April 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GER40 DAX<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/03\/20250331-144236-1024x445.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17621\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>There are no signs suggesting that the selloff is slowing down.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The level at 22,118 has proven to be crucial.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The short-term RSI has moved into negative territory.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The lack of market interest raises concerns for bullish sentiment.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>We expect further losses to unfold today.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Trade opportunity:<\/strong> Target 1: 21,601 \/\/ Target 2: 21,501 \/\/ Expires: 1 April 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>TODAY\u2019S NEWS HEADLINES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market turbulence amid recession fears<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>Concerns over a potential US recession shifted market focus towards spending data rather than inflation metrics last Friday.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>Despite positive PCE data, the US dollar index fell by 0.26%, closing at 104.01.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The 10-year US Treasury yield ended at 4.2390%, while the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy changes, finished at 3.9220%.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>US equities declined across the board, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.69%, the S&amp;P 500 falling 1.97%, and the Nasdaq sliding 2.7%.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>Major tech stocks continued their downward trend for the third consecutive trading day: Google fell 4.8%, Meta lost 4.2%, Tesla dropped 3.5%, and Apple declined 2.6%.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Commodities react to trade war concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>Trump&#8217;s recent tariff policies heightened fears of a global trade war, driving a shift towards risk-off sentiment.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>Gold surged 0.94% to a record high of USD 3,084.33 per ounce, marking its 18th all-time high this year.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>However, silver declined by 0.77%, closing at USD 34.11 per ounce, as investors took profits.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>Fears of a US-led tariff war triggering a global recession put downward pressure on oil prices.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>WTI crude dropped 1.25% to USD 68.97 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 1.23% to USD 72.40 per barrel.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Global equity markets follow downward trend<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><sub>European stock indices mirrored US losses, with Germany\u2019s DAX 30 down by 0.96%, the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 falling by 0.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declining by 0.92%.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese stocks, dropped by 3.11%.<\/sub><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><sub>Baidu fell 5.1%, while Bilibili declined 4.6%, contributing to the broader market weakness.<\/sub><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As March comes to a close, markets are closely monitoring economic signals, central bank guidance, and global trade tensions. Concerns over US tariff policies have sparked a risk-off sentiment, driving gains in precious metals like gold, while oil and stock markets in the US and Europe saw notable declines. KEY INDICATORS US economic data Fed&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-31-march-2025\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":22892,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23049"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23049\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}