{"id":17773,"date":"2025-05-02T08:01:12","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T08:01:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17773"},"modified":"2025-05-02T08:01:12","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T08:01:12","slug":"forex-market-analysis-2-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-2-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex market analysis: 2 May 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/03\/52-4-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17775\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices are once again in the spotlight as markets respond to shifting global dynamics. Hopes for progress in US-China trade talks have helped lift investor sentiment, while renewed geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around future OPEC+ output continue to shape expectations. With both demand outlook and supply decisions hanging in the balance, the crude oil market remains highly sensitive to economic and political signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Crude oil rallies on renewed hopes of US-China trade breakthrough<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil prices advanced on Friday amid growing optimism over easing trade tensions between the United States and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude climbed 0.8% to settle at USD 59.74 per barrel, while Brent crude edged up by 49 cents to close at USD 62.62.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">House Republicans plan to raise more than $15 billion in revenue through increasing US oil, gas and coal lease sales, as well as other measures, to help pay for President Donald Trump\u2019s massive tax cut package <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/o2LQu57S9u\">https:\/\/t.co\/o2LQu57S9u<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1918113306788691994?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both benchmarks built on Thursday\u2019s gains, recovering from midweek losses triggered by concerns over potential changes in OPEC+ supply policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investor confidence received a boost after China\u2019s Commerce Ministry confirmed it was assessing a US proposal for tariff negotiations, raising hopes for progress in resolving the long-running dispute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With fears of a global demand slowdown briefly easing, oil markets found renewed upward momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis: Oil eyes resistance after strong rebound<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI crude staged a robust rebound from a recent low near USD 56.38, closing in on the USD 59.67 mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following a sharp pullback from USD 60.13, prices stabilised before staging a strong upside reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The short- to medium-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) have shifted into bullish alignment, with the price now trading firmly above these key technical indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/33\/2026\/03\/image-1-1024x445-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17774\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Oil claws back above USD 59 after a strong bounce from USD 56. Momentum slows near resistance, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263?mt=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD (12,26,9) supports the bullish outlook, showing a clear crossover and expanding green histogram bars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, a slight flattening in the slope suggests potential for short-term consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate resistance sits between USD 59.85 and USD 60.13\u2014a break above this zone could pave the way for a retest of the USD 61.00 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the current momentum favouring bulls, the market may pause after such an aggressive rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Geopolitical pressure and OPEC+ dynamics remain in focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, geopolitical risks re-emerged after US President Donald Trump warned of secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Iranian oil, following a collapse in nuclear negotiations with Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This move aligns with Washington\u2019s ongoing maximum pressure strategy, which has previously helped underpin oil prices by tightening supply expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, upside potential remains constrained. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia appears hesitant to extend existing output cuts, even as prices remain below the kingdom\u2019s preferred range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-05-01\/opec-s-oil-production-fell-last-month-despite-plans-to-increase\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"OPEC+ meeting on 5 May\">OPEC+ meeting on 5 May<\/a> will be crucial, with eight member nations expected to finalise plans for June\u2019s production levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some participants are reportedly pushing for a second consecutive output increase, while non-OPEC production continues to climb, posing challenges for supply management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Oil market outlook: Cautious optimism prevails<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As China\u2019s trade policy shifts and OPEC+ production talks loom, crude oil markets are likely to remain sensitive to fresh headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the recent rally has cleared initial resistance, sustained gains will require greater clarity from both Washington and Riyadh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders should watch the USD 60.13 level closely for confirmation of a bullish continuation in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices are once again in the spotlight as markets respond to shifting global dynamics. Hopes for progress in US-China trade talks have helped lift investor sentiment, while renewed geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around future OPEC+ output continue to shape expectations. With both demand outlook and supply decisions hanging in the balance, the crude oil <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/analysis\/forex-market-analysis-2-may-2025\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17773\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}