Early premarket selling in ES pushed prices close to 5,470 before buyers stepped in, yet the rebound faded after about 30 minutes and the S&P 500 struggled to extend gains. The Nasdaq held up better, but it still failed to turn QQQ:SPY or its own breadth indicators into bullish territory. Price action pointed to a market that can bounce, but lacks follow-through.
Sector Performance and Market Sentiment
Semis and memory were described as weakening both technically and in their response to earnings and guidance, while software was said to be at best sideways. With sentiment leaning towards no near-term rate hikes after supportive June inflation data, discretionary shares still failed to rally. Defensive sectors were characterised as well bid, and Friday’s brief bout of tech leadership coincided with a pullback in XLP, XLU and XLV.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Response
The piece also referenced discussion of a “very hot weekend ahead” linked to potential major escalation in the Middle East, arguing markets had yet to fully reflect that risk.
