The S&P 500 is hovering near record levels, but market breadth is weak: most constituents are negative year to date while a small cluster of large-cap technology names props up the cap-weighted index. That concentration leaves the benchmark more sensitive to any reversal in its leaders, a point reinforced by an overnight sell-off in technology-heavy Korean and Japanese equities. The framework presented links this fragility to Elliott Wave scenario selection and positions tomorrow’s CPI report as the main near-term catalyst that could force a repricing in either direction.
S&P Futures and Elliott Wave Analysis
In S&P futures (ES), price is stalling below 7,900 and an alternative Elliott Wave count, a bearish flat (A-B-C) extending Wave 2, is being prioritised, with 7,835 flagged as the trigger for further downside.
Currency and Commodity Outlook
EUR/USD has been pushed lower by rising yields tied to a bond sell-off, placing the pair in an accumulation zone after an ending diagonal; the roadmap looks for a Wave 4 sell-off and a fresh Wave 5 low before a bounce towards 1.1300. Oil retains a bullish bias: after a three-wave B correction, the path targets a break of 95 and a move back towards 100.
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