Key Points
- Silver fell to around $60.70, down roughly 1.1% in the latest session.
- Rising oil prices are keeping inflation risks in focus as Middle East supply concerns remain high.
- Elevated US Treasury yields are increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
- Weak September payroll growth has reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in October.
- The Fed’s latest meeting minutes are the next major driver for interest-rate expectations and the US dollar.
Market Move
XAGUSD is trading around 60.697, after falling from an intraday high of 61.491. The session low stands at 60.677, placing silver close to the bottom of its daily range.
Silver initially advanced towards the 60.95 to 61.00 area before momentum reversed. Price then formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, with selling accelerating after the break below 60.85. Later attempts to recover toward 60.80 were rejected, and price subsequently slipped toward 60.70. The short term structure remains weak, however, the latest candles show selling momentum stabilising near 60.68 to 60.70, making this area an immediate test for sellers.
Why Traders Are Watching
Silver is affected by softer expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening and renewed inflation pressure from energy markets. US employment growth slowed in September, with only 29,000 jobs added, while earlier payroll figures were revised lower. This has reduced expectations that the Fed will raise rates again at its October meeting. Current market pricing places the probability of an October increase at roughly 16%, compared to 70% a week earlier.
That would normally provide support for precious metals, but high yields and oil are making the asset less favourable. The recent 10-year yield remains high, around 5.3%, while oil prices have surged again amid Middle East supply concerns. Brent crude rose above $101 per barrel, making inflation a big risk factor.
The next catalyst is the Fed’s September meeting minutes. Traders will be looking for signals on how policymakers address inflation and the likelihood of a potential policy tightening later this year.
Key Trading Levels
| Level | Area | Technical significance |
| 61 | Major resistance | Psychological level and near the earlier intraday peak zone |
| 60.9 | Resistance | Area where the earlier rally began losing momentum |
| 60.8 | Near-term pivot | Recent consolidation and repeated rejection area |
| 60.7 | Immediate support | Current trading area and short-term psychological level |
| 60.677 | Intraday low | Lowest price shown for the current session |
| 60.6 | Lower support | Next downside area if the session low breaks |
The immediate technical battle is around 60.70. Holding above this area could allow silver to stabilise and attempt another recovery toward 60.80. A sustained break below the session low at 60.677, however, would confirm further deterioration in the short-term structure and could expose 60.60.
On the upside, 60.80 is the first level buyers need to recover. A stronger move above 60.90 would weaken the current bearish sequence and reopen the possibility of a test of 61.00.
Bullish and Bearish Setups
| Setup | Trigger | Confirmation |
| Bullish | Break above 60.80 | Price moves back above the 9-period moving average and forms higher short-term highs |
| Recovery | Hold above 60.70 | Buyers defend support and price starts consolidating above the session low |
| Bearish | Break below 60.677 | Selling momentum extends and price remains below the declining moving average |
The bullish case requires more than simply holding near 60.70. Buyers would need to reclaim 60.80 and push price back above the short-term moving average before momentum begins to improve materially.
The bearish setup remains more consistent with the current chart. Silver is trading below the 9-period moving average, while successive rebounds have produced lower highs. A break below 60.677 could extend the move toward 60.60. However, a recovery above 60.80 would begin to weaken that bearish structure.
Disclaimer
The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author’s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.
Silver Prediction: What to Expect Next?
Silver could remain under pressure if oil prices continue climbing, increasing inflation concerns. This could keep US Treasury yields elevated and encourage markets to price a greater probability of additional Federal Reserve tightening this year.
A stronger US dollar is another piece of the puzzle. If the Fed minutes show support for maintaining restrictive policy or signs of an additional rate hike, both Treasury yields and the dollar could strengthen, making it more difficult for silver to recover.
On the other hand, silver could move higher if policymakers move cautiously following the weaker labour-market data. Reduced expectations for further rate increases could pull Treasury yields and the dollar lower, improving conditions for precious metals.
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FAQ
Why is silver falling today?
Silver is under pressure as oil prices rebound and US Treasury yields remain elevated. Both factors are keeping inflation and interest-rate risks in focus, while the chart also shows weakening short-term momentum.
How could the Fed minutes affect silver?
More hawkish minutes could support Treasury yields and the US dollar, potentially pressuring silver. A more cautious tone could reduce rate-hike expectations and provide support for XAGUSD.
Why do Treasury yields affect silver?
Silver does not generate interest income. When bond yields rise, interest-bearing assets can become relatively more attractive, which can create pressure on precious metals.
Could silver return above $61?
Yes, but the current chart suggests buyers first need to recover 60.80 and 60.90. A sustained break above those areas would improve the short-term structure and bring 61.00 back into focus.
Should I trade silver?
Whether silver is suitable depends on your risk tolerance, trading plan and view of the market. Silver is heavily influenced by changes in US interest rates, Treasury yields, the US dollar, inflation expectations and geopolitical developments.
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