Commercial extremes in the week to 25 September 2026 were led by the Australian dollar at a 100% COT Index, where Large Speculators were net short −46,814 after a −7,908 shift and price fell 1.38%. Natural gas printed 94% as Large Speculators stayed net short −216,530, albeit with a +5,057 improvement, alongside a 7.22% price rise. Euro FX reached 83% with Large Speculators net short −52,334 following a −25,341 move and a 0.85% decline. In metals, palladium stood at 69% with Large Speculators net short −4,533 (−383 on the week) and price down 2.81%, while platinum was 61% with Large Speculators net long +15,366 (+146) despite a 1.47% fall; sterling registered 58% with Large Speculators net short −82,568 (−23,853) and price off 1.10%. At the low end, silver and copper both posted an 8% COT Index: silver had Large Speculators net long +25,444 (+118) as price dropped 3.11%, while copper showed +90,522 (+15,388) with price up 0.95%.
Across broader positioning, the Dollar Index rose 0.82% with spec net +10,330 (−263), commercial net −12,167 (+67), small net +1,837 and open interest 46,328 (+6%), leaving a 54% COT Index. Euro FX open interest fell 11% to 821,689 as commercial net shifted to +28,967 (+28,757) and small net was +23,367; sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar each saw open interest down 22% to 244,925, down 22% to 133,495, and down 13% to 311,085, respectively. Elsewhere, yen open interest slid 30% to 378,701 while spec net was +71,982 (−48,377); Mexican peso fell 2.55% with spec net +75,167 (−12,615) and open interest 266,061 (−17%); and the New Zealand dollar’s spec net was −11,380 (−21,898) with open interest 101,377 (−25%). In energy, WTI fell 3.17% with spec net +141,106 (+5,201) and open interest 1,841,811 (−6%), while gasoline and heating oil fell 1.39% and 5.31% with open interest 361,099 (+1%) and 274,811 (−1%). In bullion, gold dropped 2.16% with spec net +225,853 (−4,485) and open interest 412,800 (+1%), while silver open interest rose 3% to 106,474; platinum open interest was 65,373 (0%) and palladium 16,730 (0%); copper open interest climbed 4% to 301,657.
Trade Setups And Market Outlook
We should closely watch the Australian Dollar for a potential bullish reversal in the coming weeks. Commercial traders have reached a 100% COT Index reading, marking the absolute top of their 26-week range, while speculators have pushed their net-short positions even lower to -46,814 contracts. Historically, when commercial positioning reaches this extreme while prices dip, it often precedes a sharp short-squeeze.
On the flip side, we suggest caution on copper and silver, which are showing signs of being overextended. Both metals have commercial positioning sitting at a low 8% on the COT Index, with large speculators heavily net-long. With copper speculators increasing their net-long exposure by over 15,000 contracts to 90,522, any sudden shift in global industrial demand could trigger a swift downside correction.
The Euro also presents an interesting opportunity as commercial buying climbs to 83% of its range, contrasting with a weakening speculative short stance. This setup aligns with broader macro trends, as market analysts note that stabilizing regional energy markets could support a rebound heading into the winter. As the US Dollar Index shows weakening bullish momentum at a 54% COT index, a pivot in EUR/USD seems increasingly likely.
Lastly, natural gas demands our attention as commercials hold a strong 94% index reading while price surged 7.22% last week. Speculators remain heavily net-short at -216,530 contracts, setting the stage for a massive short-squeeze if colder autumn weather forecasts materialize. We should look to position for upward momentum here as the market works through these extreme imbalances.
