USD/CHF rose more than 0.40% on Friday after US CPI data, alongside Thursday’s PPI, led markets to price in a Fed rate hike at next week’s meeting. The pair traded at 0.8165, having rebounded from an intraday low of 0.8124, and moved through resistance at 0.8156, the 2 September high.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, keeping near-term momentum biased higher. A break above 0.8200 would open a test of 0.8215, the 19 June 2025 high, then 0.8250, the 4 June cycle peak, and the psychological 0.8300 level. Conversely, a move below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8096 would shift focus to the 100-day SMA at 0.8009.
Derivative Trading Strategies Backed By Strong Fundamentals
We suggest derivative traders prepare for increased upward momentum in the USD/CHF pair over the coming weeks following the breakout above 0.8150. This surge is heavily backed by the recent US consumer price index rising by a hotter-than-expected 0.3% month-on-month, which has driven CME FedWatch Tool estimates for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week to over 65%. Given this strong fundamental backing, we should prioritize bullish derivative strategies to capture the next leg up.
Options And Futures Approaches For Bullish USD/CHF Setups
For options traders, we recommend utilizing bull call spreads with strike prices targeting 0.8200 and 0.8250 to capitalize on the positive Relative Strength Index momentum. This structure limits downside risk while positioning us to profit from a move toward the June 2025 high of 0.8215. Historical data shows that when the USD/CHF clears its immediate monthly resistance with a rising RSI, it often rallies by an average of 1.5% to 2% over the subsequent two weeks.
Alternatively, those trading futures or CFDs should consider buying on minor pullbacks toward the 0.8150 support level, keeping stop-loss orders tight. We advise placing protective stops just below the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 0.8096 to guard against a sudden trend reversal. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis and expose the 100-day SMA near 0.8009, making strict risk management essential as the Fed decision approaches.
