Wells Fargo Economics forecasts the Federal Reserve will leave the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end 2027. In rates markets, it projects the 10-year Treasury yield will be near 4.35% at the end of 2026 and then 4.30% at the end of 2027. The framework assumes inflation dynamics allow the FOMC to hold policy steady over an extended period.
The outlook also allows for a more hawkish policy tone while maintaining a steady-rate trajectory if inflation cools and the labour market remains balanced. Under that scenario, the yield curve is expected to bull steepen modestly as rate-hike expectations recede. The article was produced with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
Yield Curve Positioning in a Steady-Rate Environment
We believe derivative traders should position for a modest bull steepening of the yield curve in the coming weeks. With policy rates expected to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% through 2027, the market’s aggressive rate hike fears are likely overblown. Traders can capture this shift by targeting short-term interest rate derivatives, such as Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, which are poised to benefit as hawkish expectations dial back.
Historically, when the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes and inflation begins to cool, short-term yields tend to drop faster than long-term yields. Recent data shows that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been fluctuating around 4.25% to 4.40%, aligning closely with our year-end target of 4.35%. This stable environment makes entering curve-steepener trades—specifically buying 2-year Treasury futures while selling 10-year contracts—a highly favorable strategy right now.
Risk Management and Hedging Strategies
However, because the potential for unexpected energy or tariff supply shocks remains high, we must still hedge against sudden inflation spikes. Using protective options on Treasury futures, such as payer swaptions, allows us to stay flexible if inflation prints come in hotter than expected. This balanced approach protects capital while letting us profit from the Treasury market’s gradual stabilization.
