{"id":69226,"date":"2026-10-05T06:09:17","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:09:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/uncategorized\/nas100-tests-31000-as-weak-nfp-cuts-fed-hike-bets\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T06:09:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:09:17","slug":"nas100-tests-31000-as-weak-nfp-cuts-fed-hike-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/nas100-tests-31000-as-weak-nfp-cuts-fed-hike-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"NAS100 Tests 31,000 as Weak NFP Cuts Fed Hike Bets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/nas100.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69933\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key Points<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>September NFP came in at <strong>+29K<\/strong> vs <strong>+90K<\/strong> expected; August was revised down to <strong>+133K<\/strong> from +162K.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment rose to <strong>4.2%<\/strong> from 4.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The probability of an October Fed hike fell to around <strong>22.7%<\/strong>, from 64.2% a week earlier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Nasdaq Composite gained <strong>1.19%<\/strong> on Friday to close at <strong>27,190.86<\/strong>. Nvidia rose about 1.3% and Tesla jumped 4.7%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next catalysts to watch include <strong>US inflation data<\/strong> and Fed commentary.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Move<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NAS100 traded at <strong>30,853.50<\/strong>, up 25.20 points or 0.08% from the previous close of <strong>30,828.30<\/strong>. Price opened at <strong>30,869.21<\/strong> and has ranged between a session high of <strong>31,013.25<\/strong> and a low of <strong>30,828.25.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the tick chart, price is consolidating around 30,850\u201330,860, with several attempts to move higher. A push towards 30,880 was quickly reversed, while buyers emerged after an earlier dip towards 30,830. NAS100 is now trading close to, and slightly below, its 9-period moving average, pointing to softer short-term momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The weak September jobs report, with payrolls at <strong>29K<\/strong> and unemployment up to<strong> 4.2%<\/strong>, cut the odds of an October Fed hike to around <strong>22.7% from 64.2%<\/strong> a week earlier. Lower rate expectations tend to support tech and growth stocks, whose valuations are sensitive to borrowing costs. The <strong>Nasdaq Composite<\/strong> added<strong> 1.19% <\/strong>to close at <strong>27,190.86<\/strong>, led by Tesla and Nvidia, which showed that effect in action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in September, pointing to a surprising soft spot in the labor market and broader economy.<br><br>Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 29,000 for the month while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0Ezz21OVH6\">pic.twitter.com\/0Ezz21OVH6<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBC\/status\/2106005311475581366?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest question is whether this is a lasting shift or a one-day reaction. A cooling labour market supports the case for a more patient Fed, but US inflation data and Fed commentary could quickly change that view, which is why traders are watching upcoming US data closely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Trading Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/CAPITALCOM-NAS100\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">NAS100 chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"CAPITALCOM:NAS100\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Level<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Price<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Type<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">What It Means<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resistance<\/td><td>31,000<\/td><td>Round number, near today&#8217;s high of 30,966.7<\/td><td>A daily close above it would confirm a breakout<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>30,800<\/td><td>June highs and current price<\/td><td>Holding above keeps buyers in control<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support<\/td><td>30,000<\/td><td>Psychological level, base of the early-October consolidation<\/td><td>First area to watch on a pullback<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Major support<\/td><td>29,000<\/td><td>Lows of the August-September range<\/td><td>A break would signal a larger shift in structure<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The index has climbed steadily since early August, but volume has been steady rather than spiking. That makes confirmation important near resistance. Traders may wait for a daily close above <strong>31,000<\/strong> before treating the move as a breakout, and may watch <strong>30,000 <\/strong>for signs of whether buyers defend the trend on any retreat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Setups<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac33d9dbe3de.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Setup<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Trigger<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confirmation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish<\/td><td>Daily close above 31,000<\/td><td>Strong momentum, soft US inflation data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pullback<\/td><td>Retreat toward 30,800 or 30,000<\/td><td>Price holds support and the broader trend stays intact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish<\/td><td>Daily close below 30,000<\/td><td>Hot inflation data or hawkish Fed comments<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A daily close above <strong>31,000<\/strong> would strengthen the bullish outlook, particularly if softer US inflation data keeps rate hike expectations subdued. A retreat towards <strong>30,800<\/strong> could still be viewed as a pullback within the broader trend if buyers defend the level, while a deeper move towards <strong>30,000<\/strong> would put stronger support to the test. A daily close below <strong>30,000<\/strong>, especially alongside hot inflation data or hawkish Fed comments, would weaken the current structure and increase the risk of a broader downside move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author&#8217;s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NAS100 Prediction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The near-term bias is cautiously bullish while the NAS100 holds above 30,000. Soft US inflation data or dovish Fed commentary would reinforce the case against a hike, while continued strength from names like Nvidia and Tesla can lift the wider index. A daily close above <strong>31,000<\/strong> would confirm a breakout and could draw in momentum buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the downside, a hot inflation print or hawkish Fed comments could quickly bring rate hike expectations back into focus. Labour market weakness could also become a concern if investors begin to see it as evidence of slowing growth rather than a signal for easier monetary policy, potentially reducing support for tech stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US inflation data remains the key swing factor. Softer numbers could help the index hold above <strong>30,800<\/strong> and push towards <strong>31,000<\/strong>, while a hot print could send it towards <strong>30,000<\/strong> and potentially <strong>29,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade NAS100 with VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NAS100 remains active when Fed rate expectations and global risk appetite move together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With VT Markets, traders can access NAS100 CFDs alongside SP500, DJ30, forex, gold, oil, shares, ETFs, and other global CFD markets from one platform. This helps traders follow the Nasdaq 100 while also tracking related moves in mega-cap tech, the US dollar, Treasury yields, and broader equity sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Use VT Markets\u2019 charting tools to monitor support, resistance, moving averages, and breakout behaviour as the next NAS100 setup develops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Start trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/?utm_source=DMA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">indices<\/a> with VT Markets today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why did the Nasdaq rise after the NFP report?<\/strong> Weak jobs data reduced expectations of an October Fed hike, which tends to support tech and growth stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What was the September NFP result?<\/strong> +29K versus +90K expected, with unemployment rising to 4.2% from 4.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What are the key NAS100 levels to watch?<\/strong> Resistance near 31,000, with support at 30,000 and then 29,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What could move<\/strong><strong> the<\/strong><strong> Nasdaq next?<\/strong> US inflation data and Fed commentary, which will shape whether markets keep pricing out an October hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Can I trade<\/strong><strong> the<\/strong><strong> Nasdaq with VT Markets?<\/strong> Yes. Nasdaq CFDs let you speculate on rising or falling prices without owning the underlying assets.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weak September jobs data cut bets on an October Fed hike and lifted tech. The NAS100 trades near 30,850 after briefly topping 31,000 earlier in the session.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69225,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Weak September jobs data cut bets on an October Fed hike and lifted tech. 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