{"id":60128,"date":"2026-08-17T10:11:27","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T10:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/uncategorized\/aussie-hits-10-week-high-on-rba-hawkish-outlook\/"},"modified":"2026-08-17T10:11:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T10:11:27","slug":"aussie-hits-10-week-high-on-rba-hawkish-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aussie-hits-10-week-high-on-rba-hawkish-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Hits 10-Week High on RBA Hawkish Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/aussie.webp\" alt=\"AUDUSD, Aussie Dollar\" class=\"wp-image-64966\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD rose above <strong>0.7090<\/strong>, reaching a <strong>10-week high<\/strong> as the Australian dollar extended its recent recovery.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia stance has supported the Australian dollar, while softer US economic data has weighed on the US dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBA kept its cash rate at <strong>4.35%<\/strong> for a second consecutive meeting, while policymakers indicated that another rate increase remains possible.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets are pricing around a <strong>70% chance of one final RBA move to 4.60% by early next year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s <strong>July employment report<\/strong> is the next major domestic catalyst for AUD\/USD.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar climbed above <strong>0.7090<\/strong>, reaching its highest level in around 10 weeks as markets continued to assess the contrasting monetary-policy outlooks between Australia and the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUD\/USD has benefited from a combination of a relatively hawkish RBA stance and weaker US economic signals. Recent US data pointing to subdued inflation, softer consumer sentiment and weaker retail sales has reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases, putting pressure on the US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, predicts the Fed will hold interest rates steady this year before cutting rates in 2027. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to speak later this month at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/18TmvucUyu\">pic.twitter.com\/18TmvucUyu<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2089064696649224504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 16, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The shifting Fed outlook has added support to the Australian dollar, while markets continue to assess whether the RBA could deliver another rate increase as inflation and domestic economic conditions remain under scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Trading Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/AUDUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">AUDUSD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\"> by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:AUDUSD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Price Level<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>What Traders Are Watching<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.72<\/td><td>Key resistance near the recent recovery high<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.71<\/td><td>Current trading area and near-term resistance\/reference<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.7<\/td><td>Psychological support and first downside level<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.69<\/td><td>Short-term support after the recent pullback<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0.685<\/td><td>Wider support area near the recent correction low<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUDUSD is trading around <strong>0.7097<\/strong>, having recovered from the recent decline towards the <strong>0.6850\u20130.6900 area<\/strong>. The MACD has also moved back above its signal line, suggesting that bullish momentum is improving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A sustained move above <strong>0.7100<\/strong> could strengthen the recovery and bring the <strong>0.7200 resistance area<\/strong> back into focus. A failure to hold above 0.7000, however, would weaken the current recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Scenarios<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/audusd178-r-1-1024x507.webp\" alt=\"Aussie Hits 10-Week High on RBA Hawkish Outlook\" class=\"wp-image-65382\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Setup<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Trigger<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Potential Market Reaction<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery Continuation<\/td><td>Hold above 0.7000<\/td><td>AUDUSD may continue towards the 0.7100\u20130.7200 area<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish Breakout<\/td><td>Break above 0.7200<\/td><td>Momentum could strengthen towards the recent highs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Range Consolidation<\/td><td>Hold between 0.7000 and 0.7200<\/td><td>AUDUSD may consolidate while traders assess momentum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish Breakdown<\/td><td>Fall below 0.6900<\/td><td>Selling pressure could increase towards 0.6850<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bullish setup strengthens if AUDUSD maintains its recovery above 0.7000 and pushes through 0.7100. A sustained break above 0.7200 would provide stronger confirmation that the broader recovery is continuing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bearish setup becomes more relevant if AUDUSD falls below 0.6900. That would indicate that the recent recovery is losing momentum and could expose the 0.6850 support area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The price levels and trade scenarios above reflect the author\u2019s view at the time of writing and do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to Watch Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Australia\u2019s <strong>July employment report<\/strong> is the main near-term domestic catalyst for the Australian dollar. The data could influence expectations for the RBA&#8217;s next policy moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders will also monitor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Australian employment data:<\/strong> Labour-market conditions could influence expectations for further RBA policy tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>RBA policy signals:<\/strong> Further comments from policymakers could affect expectations for the cash-rate path.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>US economic data:<\/strong> Inflation and activity data remain important for Federal Reserve expectations and the US dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fed rate expectations:<\/strong> Changes in September rate-hike pricing could affect AUD\/USD.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AUD\/USD price action:<\/strong> The 0.71000 area remains an important near-term reference after the pair reached a 10-week high.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a technical perspective, traders are watching whether AUD\/USD can establish a foothold above <strong>0.70970<\/strong>, while <strong>0.70000<\/strong> remains an important nearby downside reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade AUD\/USD CFDs with VT Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUD\/USD remains one of the major currency pairs watched closely as traders assess interest-rate expectations, economic data and broader risk sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With VT Markets, traders can access AUD\/USD alongside other major forex pairs and global CFD markets through one trading environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Charting tools can also help traders monitor price movements, support and resistance levels as the Australian dollar responds to changes in monetary-policy expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Start trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\">Forex CFDs<\/a> with VT Markets today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Frequently Asked Questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why is the Australian dollar rising?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUD\/USD has been supported by the RBA&#8217;s relatively hawkish policy stance and weakness in the US dollar following softer US economic data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is supporting the Australian dollar?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Expectations that the RBA could deliver another rate increase have supported the Australian dollar. Markets currently price around a 70% chance of one final move to 4.60% by early next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is happening with AUD\/USD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUD\/USD has risen above <strong>0.7090<\/strong>, reaching a 10-week high as the Australian dollar continues to benefit from supportive domestic rate expectations and a softer US dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is the next major Australian dollar catalyst?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Australia&#8217;s July employment report is the next major domestic data release that traders are watching for clues about the RBA&#8217;s policy outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What AUD\/USD levels are traders watching?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>0.71000<\/strong> area is the immediate upside reference, while <strong>0.70000<\/strong> is a nearby level to watch if the pair pulls back.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points: The Australian dollar climbed above 0.7090, reaching its highest level in around 10 weeks as markets continued to assess the contrasting monetary-policy outlooks between Australia and the US. AUD\/USD has benefited from a combination of a relatively hawkish RBA stance and weaker US economic signals. Recent US data pointing to subdued inflation, softer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/aussie-hits-10-week-high-on-rba-hawkish-outlook\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":60127,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key Points: The Australian dollar climbed above 0.7090, reaching its highest level in around 10 weeks as markets continued to assess the contrasting monetary-policy outlooks between Australia and the US. 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AUD\/USD has benefited from a combination of a relatively hawkish RBA stance and weaker US economic signals. 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