{"id":59928,"date":"2026-08-15T11:32:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T11:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/uncategorized\/dollar-holds-near-7-week-high-on-jobs-data\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T11:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T11:32:12","slug":"dollar-holds-near-7-week-high-on-jobs-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/dollar-holds-near-7-week-high-on-jobs-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Holds Near 7-Week High on Jobs Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traders have dialled back expectations for deep rate cuts, with a 25-bps reduction in November now an 86% probability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The dollar index continues to hover near its seven-week high, driven by stronger US data and a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The outlook for US rates has shifted, with traders moving away from predicting larger rate cuts. As of today, markets are no longer fully pricing in a November rate cut, although the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 86%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, traders are only pricing in 50 basis points of easing by December, down from over 70 basis points just last week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These adjustments reflect changing expectations about the Federal Reserve&#8217;s monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/20241008-125007-1024x474.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15284\" style=\"width:1450px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Picture: The USDX shows sustained upward momentum, with resistance around 102.425 offering a key level to watch. <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Traders Cautious as Dollar Nears Seven-Week High<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The USDX chart shows a clear upward trend, with the price currently stabilising around the 102.145 mark, just below the seven-week high of 102.69 seen last Friday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With strong data and the possibility of a \u2018no landing\u2019 economic scenario, traders are hesitant to aggressively bet on future cuts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem\u2019s recent comments underscore the central bank\u2019s cautious stance, indicating that<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/stlouisfed\/status\/1839746890897764813\"> further reductions to the policy rate will likely be gradual<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">During an interview with the Financial Times on Friday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. Read the article: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/M5p6mis75r\">https:\/\/t.co\/M5p6mis75r<\/a><\/p>&mdash; St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/stlouisfed\/status\/1839746890897764813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 27, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4% as Traders Await Key Inflation Data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury yield held above 4% during Asian trading hours, reaching this level for the first time in two months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This rise reflects traders pulling back on expectations for large rate cuts. The next focal point for traders will be this week\u2019s inflation report, along with the release of minutes from the Fed\u2019s September meeting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These reports could provide further insight into the Fed&#8217;s future rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>You might be interested: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/market_analysis\/week-ahead-strong-jobs-data-fuels-fed-dilemma\/\">Strong Jobs Data Fuels Fed Dilemma<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With key data points ahead, we expect the dollar to maintain its strength in the short term, especially if US inflation prints align with the hawkish shift in market expectations. However, should the inflation data show signs of softening, there could be room for a modest pullback in dollar strength. Conversely, continued strong US economic performance could keep the dollar buoyant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:15282 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dollar remains strong at seven-weeks high against major currencies, driven by robust job data, affecting market risk appetite. &#8211; vtmarkets.com <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The dollar remains strong at seven-weeks high against major currencies, driven by robust job data, affecting market risk appetite. - vtmarkets.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/dollar-holds-near-7-week-high-on-jobs-data\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 5.0.1\" \/>\n\n\t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> (function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){ c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)}; 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