{"id":59651,"date":"2026-08-15T10:43:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T10:43:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/uncategorized\/aussie-rallies-on-inflation-surprise-and-rate-hike-speculations\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T10:43:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T10:43:25","slug":"aussie-rallies-on-inflation-surprise-and-rate-hike-speculations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aussie-rallies-on-inflation-surprise-and-rate-hike-speculations\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie rallies on inflation surprise and rate hike speculations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Key points<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Australian dollar rises 0.4% to $0.6675<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Annual inflation jumps to 4.0% in May, above forecasts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market prices in higher probability of rate hike<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar surged higher on Wednesday after data revealed that inflation accelerated much more than expected in May. This development impacted bonds as investors priced in a greater risk of another increase in interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Inflation surges to 4.0% in May<\/strong><br>The monthly consumer price (CPI) report showed annual inflation rose to 4.0% in May, up from 3.6% in April and well above forecasts of 3.8%. A key core measure also picked up to 4.4%, the highest reading in six months.<br><br>Also read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/aussie-surges-as-interest-rate-outlooks-diverge\/\">Aussie surges as interest rate outlooks diverge<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had already indicated its vigilance towards <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/markets\/status\/1805779069486682420\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">upside risks to inflation<\/a>, suggesting that another rate hike could not be ruled out. This stance was reinforced by the recent inflation data, pushing markets to lift the probability of a rate hike to 39%, up from 12% before the data release, with a move likely in August following the full second-quarter CPI report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia recorded faster-than-expected inflation in May, suggesting price pressures remain stubbornly strong <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/R6PjGXPab6\">https:\/\/t.co\/R6PjGXPab6<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg Markets (@markets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/markets\/status\/1805779069486682420?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 26, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures also priced out any chance of a cut in the 4.35% cash rate this year. Only 20 basis points of easing are implied by the end of 2025, compared to 44 basis points earlier in the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AD_4nXeIy2vYExVa7ckoRkuizFhIdRI-wEE67mIMQIHJu596VHvowlLGDbX0pilsJ9UxyFGYIv-jg6-jEqQAAFXeXV2_WqqcYiMFI6zZCc_2KS8mrW8tpqZ6Mzui4sqLsS7FDH26Noy7-aPCp0o7J1rRzvn25k0keyryLSaMzyzmkxh-wMcviIDg.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">See: Aussie trading at 0.66740 on the VT Markets app. <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Download now<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Aussie firmed 0.4% to $0.6675 (AUDUSD), and appeared poised to test resistance around $0.6679. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar lagged at $0.6117 (NZDUSD), remaining in a tight $0.6105\/6140 range over the past few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You might be interested: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/aussie-sees-minimal-boost-from-rbas-hawkish-stance\/\">Aussie sees minimal boost from RBA\u2019s hawkish stance&nbsp;<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Australian bond futures plunge, yields spike<\/strong><br>Australian bond futures (YTTc1) for three years slid 14 basis points to 95.970, marking the sharpest daily drop in two months. Yields on 10-year bonds (AU10Y) climbed 11 basis points to 4.315%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The CPI report for the June quarter is due on July 31, just days before the RBA&#8217;s policy meeting on August 7. The central bank had expected the core trimmed mean measure of inflation to slow to 3.8% in the quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors should remain cautious as inflation data and central bank policies continue to drive market movements. The Australian dollar&#8217;s recent strength may persist if inflationary pressures remain elevated and the RBA maintains its hawkish stance.<br><strong><br><\/strong><strong>Start trading now \u2014 click <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><strong> to create your live VT Markets account.<\/strong><\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:13916 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key points The Australian dollar surged higher on Wednesday after data revealed that inflation accelerated much more than expected in May. This development impacted bonds as investors priced in a greater risk of another increase in interest rates. Inflation surges to 4.0% in MayThe monthly consumer price (CPI) report showed annual inflation rose to 4.0% <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/aussie-rallies-on-inflation-surprise-and-rate-hike-speculations\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key points The Australian dollar surged higher on Wednesday after data revealed that inflation accelerated much more than expected in May. 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