{"id":59528,"date":"2026-08-15T10:21:36","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T10:21:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/uncategorized\/us-inflation-report-impact-on-the-dollar\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T10:21:36","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T10:21:36","slug":"us-inflation-report-impact-on-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/us-inflation-report-impact-on-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"US inflation report: Impact on the dollar\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points:<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The momentum of the USD has been influenced by hawkish monetary policy, with fewer than two rate cuts to be expected in 2024.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Recent softening economic data, including employment and manufacturing indicators, hint at a potential reversal in the strength of the USD.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming US inflation report is expected to play a key role in shaping the value of the USD and guiding perceptions of next moves by the Federal Reserve. Over the past months, the dollar has enjoyed a rally, driven primarily by a shift in expectations towards a less accommodative monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. This perception is supported by the markets projecting fewer than two rate cuts in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>The USD uptrend is slowing down<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this uptrend in the dollar has recently lost some steam. A series of economic reports \u2014 slightly weaker payroll numbers, Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) surveys, and the latest jobless claims \u2014 suggest a softening in the economic backdrop. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The jobless claims, though influenced by seasonal factors, together with other data, paint a picture that the US economy might not be as robust as previously perceived.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, the weakening of USD is also further supported by a comparison to its global counterparts. A recent dovish stance by the Bank of England suggests a growing market inclination towards betting against the USD.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Overoptimistic and overbought<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, the US data slowdown coincides with positions heavily favoring the dollar (dollar net longs) have become crowded \u2013 or typically called as an \u201coverbought\u201d situation spoken among traders. This could imply that the market is overly optimistic about the strength of the USD, leaving it vulnerable to a correction should economic indicators continue to disappoint.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chair Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve recently indicated a potential halt to rate hikes during the May policy meeting. This pivot introduces a new dynamic into the market, setting the stage for a possible recalibration of interest rate expectations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell&#39;s reassuring message following the central bank\u2019s monetary policy meeting may not calm frazzled US stock and bond investors, as uncertainty over the path of inflation intensifies the focus on upcoming data <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZCDruz203T\">https:\/\/t.co\/ZCDruz203T<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/1785908346530193412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 2, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Should the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report come below expectations or barely meet them, the market might begin to anticipate rate cuts. Conversely, a higher-than-expected CPI could validate the current hawkish outlook, albeit temporarily.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Keep an eye on the CPI data release<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders should closely monitor the CPI data release, as it will provide vital clues about the short-term direction of the USD and potentially form a critical part of any <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/beginners\/lesson-3-understanding-the-currency-pairs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">currency pairs<\/a> involving the USD. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Create your live VT Markets account<\/strong><\/a><strong> and <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>start trading<\/strong><\/a><strong> now.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>\n\n<!-- vt-src:13295 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points:&nbsp; The upcoming US inflation report is expected to play a key role in shaping the value of the USD and guiding perceptions of next moves by the Federal Reserve. Over the past months, the dollar has enjoyed a rally, driven primarily by a shift in expectations towards a less accommodative monetary policy by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/us-inflation-report-impact-on-the-dollar\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Key Points: The upcoming US inflation report is expected to play a key role in shaping the value of the USD and guiding perceptions of next moves by the Federal Reserve. 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