Gold has held on to most of its recent gains after moving through key resistance, with the advance initially underpinned by lower oil prices, a pullback in yields and the USD, as well as reports of central bank and ETF purchases alongside technical buying. More recently, momentum has cooled as oil rebounded, stirring inflation concerns and pushing US Treasury yields higher. Attention is now turning to tonight\u2019s payrolls data as the next hurdle for the rally.<\/p>\n\n
A weaker payrolls print could further temper Fed hike expectations and help the move extend, while a firmer outcome may trigger profittaking after the sharp run. Technical conditions remain mildly bullish, though the rise in RSI has moderated. Resistance is seen at 4333, the 23.6% fibo retracement from the 2026 high to low, and then 4389 at the 100 DMA; support sits at 4180 at the 50 DMA and 4082 at the 21 DMA.<\/p>\n\n
We are seeing gold hold onto its massive breakout gains, but derivative traders must brace for high volatility as the US payrolls report drops today. This key economic data will decide whether the precious metal can resume its bullish run or if it will trigger a wave of profit-taking. Recent data shows global central banks have been buying over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually, providing a strong long-term floor for the market.<\/p>\n\n
However, we must watch the recent rebound in crude oil prices, which is reviving global inflation fears and pushing US Treasury yields higher. If bond yields continue to climb, they will increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and cap its upside. Derivative traders should monitor these yields closely, as any sudden surge could quickly cool down the gold rally.<\/p>\n\n
If today’s payrolls come in weaker than expected, we recommend buying call options or taking long futures positions to capitalize on declining interest rate expectations. This scenario should push gold past its immediate resistance level of 4,333, which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 range. A sustained breakout could quickly open the doors toward the 100-day moving average at 4,389.<\/p>\n\n
Conversely, a stronger-than-expected payrolls report will likely prompt immediate profit-taking after this sharp rally, making short-term put options highly attractive. In this bearish setup, we expect gold to quickly test its initial support at the 50-day moving average of 4,180. If that level fails to hold, the next major downside target for short positions sits at the 21-day moving average of 4,082.<\/p>\n\n\n\n