AUD\/USD hovered just under 0.7000 on Tuesday, down about 0.25% and the weakest in G10, after an address by the RBA Governor failed to reinforce the case for further tightening. The range was roughly 35 pips, from above 0.6950 to a peak short of the figure, extending to a fifth straight week in which 0.7000 has capped gains. The remarks still described underlying inflation as too high, with potential upside from war-driven energy costs, and said demand must cool further with demand still outpacing supply, while the board remains prepared to tighten again if needed. <\/p>\n
Market pricing shifted ahead of Wednesday\u2019s Australian CPI at 01:30 GMT and the 11 August decision. The calendar points to 0.2% MoM versus -0.7% previously, with the annual rate at 4%; trimmed mean is seen at 0.4% MoM with the annual trimmed mean previously 3.6%, while a quarterly trimmed mean near 0.9% would push the annual pace towards 3.7% versus the 2% to 3% band. Australia added more than 76K jobs in June with unemployment at 4.4%, while May projections had lifted the June-quarter headline CPI to 4.8%; a 0.8% trimmed-mean quarter would instead pull the annual pace towards 3.5%. Offshore, Fed pricing implies just over 30% odds of a July hike, above 91% for at least one by December, and around 58% for two or more, while the RBA cash rate has been 4.35% since the third hike of the year. Iron ore has held below $100 a tonne; Korea\u2019s benchmark fell close to 11% and Japan\u2019s nearly 4% even as Australia\u2019s index rose, yet the currency still lagged. <\/p>\n
Key events include FOMC at 18:00 GMT Wednesday, US building permits at -1.5% MoM versus -1.1% Thursday, US core PCE at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY, then Q2 PPI at 01:30 GMT Friday versus 3% YoY prior alongside China PMIs seen at 50 after 50.3 and 50.2. Technically, resistance sits at 0.7000 with the 50-day EMA just above, then 0.7050 and the May peak short of 0.7300; supports are 0.6950, the 200-day EMA near 0.6900, and the base above 0.6850. The daily Stochastic RSI is near 90; invalidation is a daily close above 0.7050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n