EUR\/USD has resumed its decline after failing to clear resistance at 1.1475, with price action slipping under 1.1420. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading below both the 100 simple moving average and the 200 simple moving average, as sellers drove it down towards support at 1.1365.<\/p>\n
Further weakness could take the pair through 1.1350, with the next supports flagged near 1.1325 and then 1.1300. A break and close below 1.1300 would expose 1.1265, and additional losses could bring 1.1240 into view. On the upside, resistance is seen around 1.1400, while a bearish trend line is developing with resistance at 1.1405; beyond that, the next cap sits at 1.1420 alongside the 100 simple moving average. A close above 1.1420 would shift focus to 1.1450, with scope to retest 1.1475.<\/p>\n
We advise derivative traders to position for a sustained bearish move in EUR\/USD over the coming weeks as the pair faces intense downward pressure. With the exchange rate breaking below key simple moving averages and turning away from the 1.1475 resistance zone, the path of least resistance is firmly to the downside. We recommend establishing short positions on temporary rallies toward the 1.1400 resistance level, keeping a tight stop-loss just above 1.1420. <\/p>\n
Recent macroeconomic indicators support this bearish outlook, especially with the Eurozone\u2019s inflation rate recently dipping to 2.1% and fueling expectations of further ECB rate cuts. Meanwhile, robust economic data from the US, including a steady GDP growth rate of 2.4% in the first half of 2026, continues to strengthen the US Dollar. This growing monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep the Euro capped.<\/p>\n
Historically, when EUR\/USD fails to hold key psychological support levels like 1.1350, it quickly accelerates toward the 1.1300 handle. If we see a daily close below 1.1300, we expect derivative sellers to target the 1.1265 and 1.1240 levels next. Traders should remain cautious of sudden volatility, but the overall technical setup strongly favors downside-focused option and futures strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n