UK CPI is expected to ease in June, with headline inflation forecast at 2.7% year-on-year versus a 2.7% market view, a 3.1% Bank of England projection and 2.8% previously. Services inflation is still seen as firm at 3.6% against 3.5% in the market and 3.6% at the BoE, down from 3.7%, while core CPI is put at 2.6% in line with consensus as core goods offer little movement.<\/p>\n
With no Ofgem adjustment to electricity and gas prices in June, fuel is the main driver, and petrol costs are expected to fall month-on-month even as fuel inflation stays high at 21.3% year-on-year. Including power and gas, energy inflation is forecast to rise to 5.9%.<\/p>\n
The ONS price-collection date adds uncertainty: if airfares print lower, services could drop to 3.5% and core to 2.5%. Risks then turn to further pass-through from Ofgem\u2019s July price cap change and potential second-round wage effects, which would feed into Bank Rate considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n