{"id":56606,"date":"2026-07-06T10:04:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T10:04:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/uncategorized\/us-10-year-yield-edges-lower-ahead-of-fed-minutes\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T10:04:27","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T10:04:27","slug":"us-10-year-yield-edges-lower-ahead-of-fed-minutes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/us-10-year-yield-edges-lower-ahead-of-fed-minutes\/","title":{"rendered":"US 10-Year Yield Edges Lower Ahead of Fed Minutes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/10Y-US-Treasury-2-r-1-1024x558.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61115\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The US 10-year Treasury yield eased towards 4.47% after approaching 4.50% last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, below expectations for a 110,000 rise.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employment figures for April and May were revised lower by a combined 74,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Softer labour data reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lower oil prices eased some inflation concerns that had previously supported higher Treasury yields.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The US10Y daily chart places immediate support near 4.44%, while 4.48% to 4.50% is the first resistance area.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The US 10-year Treasury yield moved lower on Monday as traders continued to assess softer employment data and prepared for the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve\u2019s June policy meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US10Y eased towards 4.47%, giving back part of its recent advance. Since Treasury prices and yields generally move in opposite directions, the decline indicated stronger demand for 10-year Treasury notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Treasuries rallied after a weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted traders to scale back expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Citg9ZByB8\">https:\/\/t.co\/Citg9ZByB8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2072664122957693197?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The move extended the Treasury market\u2019s reaction to the June employment report. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, below expectations for a rise of 110,000. Figures for April and May were also revised lower by a combined 74,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, while the labour-force participation rate fell to 61.5%. This suggested that the lower unemployment rate partly reflected fewer people participating in the labour market rather than stronger hiring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The weaker report gave the Federal Reserve more room to assess inflation before considering further tightening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, far fewer than forecast. Joachim Klement of Panmure Liberum tells Reuters that gives the Fed time to see how inflation plays out, and he doesn&#39;t believe there will be a rate hike this year at all <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/noQtCGGYhi\">https:\/\/t.co\/noQtCGGYhi<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dG3Zul70LZ\">pic.twitter.com\/dG3Zul70LZ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2073034020498424286?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 3, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The view that the Fed may avoid another rate increase this year represents the analyst\u2019s assessment rather than a confirmed policy outcome. However, softer labour data encouraged traders to reduce expectations for near-term tightening, supporting Treasury note prices and placing downward pressure on yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Traders Are Watching This<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US 10-year Treasury yield is closely watched because it reflects expectations for economic growth, inflation and Federal Reserve policy over a longer time horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current move is particularly relevant because traders are balancing weaker employment growth against continued inflation concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Slower hiring may reduce the need for another near-term rate increase. However, the Federal Reserve has maintained a firm position on inflation and has not ruled out further policy action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At its meeting on 16 and 17 June, the Fed kept the federal funds target range at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20260617a.htm\">3.50% to 3.75%<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upcoming FOMC minutes may provide more detail on how policymakers assessed inflation, employment conditions and the possible need for additional tightening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US10Y may therefore remain sensitive to changes in rate expectations before and after the minutes are released.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Yield Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/10Y-US-Treasury.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61118\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Yield Level<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>What Traders Are Watching<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.56%<\/td><td>Wider resistance from the June highs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.52%<\/td><td>Secondary resistance above the current range<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.50%<\/td><td>Key psychological and technical resistance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.48%<\/td><td>Immediate resistance near the latest session high<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.47%<\/td><td>Current chart area<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.44%<\/td><td>Immediate short-term support<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.40%<\/td><td>Key psychological and technical support<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4.36%<\/td><td>Recent swing low and wider downside support<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The US10Y daily chart shows the yield near 4.465% after rebounding from its late-June low around 4.36%. However, the recovery has stalled below the immediate 4.48% to 4.50% resistance area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sustained move above 4.48% could bring 4.50% back into focus. However, a stronger advance would require the yield to break and hold above 4.50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A confirmed move beyond that level could shift attention towards 4.52%, followed by wider resistance near 4.56%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the downside, 4.44% is the first support level to monitor. A break below this area could expose the psychological 4.40% level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Setups<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Setup<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Trigger<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Potential Market Reaction<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Higher-Yield Recovery<\/td><td>Move above 4.48%<\/td><td>US10Y may retest 4.50%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Yield Breakout<\/td><td>Break above 4.50%<\/td><td>Attention may shift towards 4.52% to 4.56%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Range Consolidation<\/td><td>Remain between 4.44% and 4.50%<\/td><td>Traders may wait for clearer Fed signals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lower-Yield Move<\/td><td>Break below 4.44%<\/td><td>US10Y may decline towards 4.40%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Downside Extension<\/td><td>Fall below 4.40%<\/td><td>The decline may extend towards 4.36%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The higher-yield scenario depends on US10Y moving above 4.48% and securing a confirmed break through 4.50%. This could indicate that markets are rebuilding expectations for tighter policy or persistent inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A stronger advance would require a break above 4.52%. If the yield clears that level, the move could extend towards wider resistance near 4.56%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The neutral scenario is consolidation between 4.44% and 4.50%. Range-bound movement may indicate that traders are waiting for the FOMC minutes and upcoming Treasury auctions before committing to the next direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The lower-yield scenario strengthens if US10Y falls below 4.44%. A confirmed break could bring 4.40% into focus. If 4.40% also fails, the yield may revisit its recent swing low near 4.36%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A decline in yields would generally support Treasury note prices, while an increase in yields would place downward pressure on those prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The price levels and trade scenarios above reflect the author\u2019s view at the time of writing and do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade US Treasury Bond CFDs With VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>US Treasury markets can experience sharp movements when employment data, inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy signals change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With VT Markets, traders can access bond CFDs and monitor changes in US Treasury market conditions through one trading platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VT Markets provides the tools to follow yield movements, identify key levels and respond as conditions evolve. Whether US10Y moves above 4.50% or falls below 4.40%, traders can monitor the setup using advanced charting tools and flexible account options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/cfd-bonds\/\">CFD bonds<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Trade US Treasury Bond CFDs?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bond CFDs allow traders to take a view on rising or falling bond prices without purchasing the underlying Treasury securities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Treasury prices and yields generally move in opposite directions, a decline in US10Y may support Treasury note prices, while a rise in the yield may place pressure on those prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bond CFDs can be useful when employment reports, inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions create volatility in the US Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to Watch Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The main event will be the minutes from the Federal Reserve\u2019s <strong>16 and 17 June<\/strong> meeting, scheduled for release on <strong>Wednesday, 8 July<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders will be looking for details on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How much support existed for another interest-rate increase<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The level of concern surrounding persistent inflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Whether policymakers discussed weaker employment growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What economic conditions could change the policy stance<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How officials assessed the balance between inflation and employment risks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The language used in the minutes may determine whether US10Y remains below 4.50% or resumes its earlier advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Treasury auctions will provide another test of investor demand. Sales of 10-year and 30-year securities may show whether buyers remain willing to absorb longer-dated government debt at current yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US bond market faces a test of investor demand for longer-dated maturities, with auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries highlighting an otherwise light week <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1YfgUxRNTh\">https:\/\/t.co\/1YfgUxRNTh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2073894950693998769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Strong auction demand could help contain US10Y, while weaker bidding may place upward pressure on the yield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond the minutes and auctions, traders should monitor inflation data, weekly jobless claims and comments from Federal Reserve officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, 4.44% to 4.50% is the main short-term range. A confirmed move above 4.50% could bring 4.52% and 4.56% into focus, while a break below 4.44% may expose 4.40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Frequently Asked Questions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why did the US 10-year Treasury yield fall?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>US10Y declined after payroll growth slowed to 57,000 in June and employment figures for the previous two months were revised lower. The data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to tighten policy again in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What happens to Treasury note prices when yields fall?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Treasury prices and yields generally move in opposite directions. When demand for Treasury notes increases, their prices rise and their yields decline. When Treasury notes are sold, prices fall and yields rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is the US 10-year Treasury a bond or a note?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Treasury classifies securities with original maturities of two to ten years as notes. The benchmark 10-year security is therefore technically a Treasury note, although it is often discussed as part of the broader bond market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why are the FOMC minutes important for US10Y?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The minutes provide more detail than the policy statement. They may reveal how policymakers assessed inflation, employment conditions and the possible need for further rate changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What are the main US10Y levels to watch?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Immediate support is near 4.44%, followed by 4.40% and 4.36%. Immediate resistance is near 4.48%, followed by 4.50%, 4.52% and 4.56%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What could push US10Y above 4.50%?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Stronger economic data, persistent inflation or more restrictive Federal Reserve communication could increase expectations for higher policy rates and push US10Y above the recent resistance area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What could push US10Y below 4.40%?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Weaker economic data, easing inflation pressure or a more cautious Federal Reserve outlook could increase demand for Treasury notes and move US10Y below 4.40%.<\/p>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The US 10-year Treasury yield moved lower on Monday as traders continued to assess softer employment data and prepared for the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve\u2019s June policy meeting. US10Y eased towards 4.47%, giving back part of its recent advance. Since Treasury prices and yields generally move in opposite directions, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/us-10-year-yield-edges-lower-ahead-of-fed-minutes\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":56605,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56605"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}