Iran is weighing new service fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to comments made in Beijing by its ambassador to China, while framing any charges as fees rather than a toll and indicating preferential treatment for countries that backed Tehran during the recent conflict. Separately, Iran\u2019s Foreign Ministry said mine clearance in the strait is governed by a memorandum of understanding (MoU), adding that it sees no requirement for third-party involvement.<\/p>\n\n
In Washington, US Vice President JD Vance said oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to pre-war levels. On negotiations, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran would not engage the US on a final agreement until every MoU clause is implemented, including an end to hostilities in Lebanon and the release of frozen Iranian funds. In markets, WTI, the US oil benchmark, was trading near $69 at the start of the week.<\/p>\n\n
We see a clear disconnect between the market’s current calm and the significant geopolitical risks being introduced. The WTI price near $69 seems to reflect only the restoration of oil traffic, ignoring Iran’s new posture. This creates an opportunity based on future volatility.<\/p>\n\n
Iran’s plan to charge “service fees” for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is a major development. This is essentially a new tax on a critical global chokepoint that will raise the cost of oil transport. We expect this to be passed directly on to consumers, pushing crude prices higher.<\/p>\n\n
This is a critical waterway, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration noting that about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption moves through it. Historically, even minor disruptions in this strait have caused significant price spikes. We see the current market as being far too complacent about this new, direct financial threat to a fifth of the world’s oil supply.<\/p>\n\n
Looking back at past Gulf conflicts, such as the “Tanker War” of the 1980s, war risk insurance premiums for vessels soared, adding to the cost of oil. We are already seeing initial reports from shipping insurers that premiums for Hormuz transits are being re-evaluated. This is a leading indicator that the market is beginning to price in this risk, and we expect it to accelerate.<\/p>\n\n
Given these factors, we are positioning for a rise in both oil prices and volatility in the coming weeks. We view buying out-of-the-money call options on Brent and WTI futures with September 2026 expiration dates as a prudent strategy. This approach offers significant upside exposure while defining our maximum risk.<\/p>\n\n
The fact that final peace talks are stalled until all MoU clauses are met adds another layer of uncertainty. This suggests the underlying tensions that led to the recent conflict remain unresolved. With OPEC+ having limited spare capacity to offset any potential supply issues, the market is more vulnerable to a price shock than it has been in years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n