A Reuters poll published on Tuesday shows analysts cutting 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually improves and worries over sustained supply disruption ease. The survey of 31 economists and analysts sees Brent crude averaging $84.50 a barrel in 2026, down from $90.44 in May, while US benchmark WTI is projected at $79.49 versus $84.63 previously. Within 2026, Brent is seen near $84 in the third quarter, sliding to about $79 in the fourth quarter and then moving into the mid-$70s by mid-2027; at the time of writing, WTI is around $70.80, back near its March lows after unwinding its US-Iran war rally. <\/p>\n
The poll also points to slower global oil demand growth in 2026, put at roughly 1.0 million to 2.0 million barrels per day, with softer demand linked to weaker consumption in China, the world\u2019s largest oil importer. WTI remains a key benchmark, a \u201clight\u201d and \u201csweet\u201d crude routed through the Cushing hub, and its price is driven by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitics, OPEC quota decisions and the US Dollar. Market attention also tracks weekly inventory reports from API and EIA; their figures are usually close, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. OPEC comprises 12 producers, while OPEC+ includes ten additional non-OPEC members, including Russia.<\/p>\n
We are seeing analysts lower their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war, as supply fears are fading. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz improving, the geopolitical risk premium that held prices up is now evaporating. This points to a bearish sentiment taking hold in the market for the second half of the year.<\/p>\n
The easing of tensions is tangible, as recent maritime data shows tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz have now returned to 95% of pre-conflict levels. With these crucial supply routes stabilizing, the immediate upside risk to prices is greatly reduced. This fundamental shift means we can expect fundamentals, not headlines, to drive price action.<\/p>\n
On the demand side, signs of weakness are also becoming clear, particularly from China. China’s National Bureau of Statistics recently reported that June oil imports fell 4% year-over-year, their third consecutive monthly decline. This slowdown in the world’s largest importer suggests a firm cap on any potential price rallies in the near term.<\/p>\n
Here in the U.S., last week\u2019s EIA report confirmed this softening trend by showing a surprise crude inventory build of 2.1 million barrels. This went against expectations for a draw, signaling that domestic consumption isn’t as strong as hoped for during the peak summer driving season. Historically, inventory builds during summer are a strong bearish indicator.<\/p>\n
Given this backdrop, we believe selling into strength is the prudent strategy for the coming weeks. Buying puts or establishing put spreads on WTI provides an effective way to position for a potential slide towards the high $60s. This allows us to capitalize on the expected downside while defining our risk.<\/p>\n
This situation is reminiscent of the market action after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, where an initial price spike was fully retraced as global supply chains adapted. The market has a short memory for geopolitical risk once the immediate threat subsides. We anticipate this pattern will repeat, with weakening demand and normalizing supply pushing prices lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n