AUD\/USD held to a narrow band around 0.6890 in Asian trading on Monday as the US Dollar was steady ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls report for June, due on Thursday. The US Dollar Index was near 101.30, while attention centred on how the labour data could shape Federal Reserve policy expectations, which the CME FedWatch tool puts at almost a 90% chance of at least one rate rise this year.<\/p>\n\n
Consensus forecasts point to 114K jobs added, compared with 172K in May, and the Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at 4.3%. In Australia, focus turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s minutes from its June meeting, when it kept the Official Cash Rate at 4.35% after three consecutive hikes. On the charts, AUD\/USD remained below the 20-day EMA at 0.7003, with the RSI at 27.70. Resistance is flagged at 0.7003 and then the June 15 high of 0.7088, while downside attention sits on the March 30 low at 0.6833.<\/p>\n\n
As of June 29, 2026, we are observing the AUD\/USD pair trading sideways near 0.6610. The market is quiet as it awaits the crucial United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week. This upcoming data will be the primary catalyst for movement in the US Dollar.<\/p>\n\n
The focus is on the US economy’s health, as the NFP report is expected to show a cooling labor market with a forecast of 150,000 jobs added, down from May’s 185,000. Recent US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index at 2.8%, remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A strong jobs number would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold interest rates higher for longer, strengthening the US Dollar.<\/p>\n\n
On the Australian side, we are waiting for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting minutes. With Australia’s own inflation running at 3.2%, the RBA is also hesitant to signal any rate cuts, but the minutes will reveal how unified the board is on this stance. Any hint of dovishness or concern about the domestic economy could weigh on the Aussie dollar.<\/p>\n\n
From a technical standpoint, the AUD\/USD trend appears weak, trading below its 20-day moving average, now acting as resistance around 0.6680. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is low, suggesting the pair may be oversold, but this isn’t a buy signal without a change in fundamentals. For now, we see more risk to the downside, with a potential target near the year-to-date low of 0.6550.<\/p>\n\n
Given the uncertainty around the NFP data, we believe derivative traders should consider strategies that profit from a potential downward move or increased volatility. Buying put options with a strike price below 0.6600 could offer a cost-effective way to position for a stronger-than-expected US jobs report. This would provide downside exposure with a defined risk.<\/p>\n\n
For those who simply anticipate a significant price swing but are unsure of the direction, a long straddle strategy could be appropriate. This involves buying both a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiration date. Such a position would profit if the AUD\/USD makes a sharp move in either direction following the NFP release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n