EUR\/USD Technical Setup And Geopolitical Drivers<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD slipped to about 1.1465 in early European trading on Monday, extending a bearish set-up as the pair stays below the 100-day SMA and the Bollinger middle band. Market focus has been on developments around US-Iran negotiations in B\u00fcrgenstock, Switzerland, after a joint statement from Qatar and Pakistan said talks were held in a positive, constructive atmosphere. The statement also referenced progress on measures linked to the Lebanon conflict, including exemptions for oil and petrochemical exports, the removal of a blockade, the release of some frozen assets, and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan for Iran.<\/p>\n
Policy expectations have also been in play after an ECB official said the central bank may raise rates again as soon as next month if inflation pressures broaden beyond energy. The ECB deposit rate is 2.25%, while pricing points to 25 basis-point moves in September or October and another increase in the early months of next year. On the chart, the RSI sits near 34, with the lower Bollinger band around 1.1450 as initial support, while resistance levels are seen near 1.1570, 1.1665 and 1.1695. Separately, the euro accounts for 31% of FX activity, with average daily turnover above $2.2 trillion, and EUR\/USD represents an estimated 30% of transactions, ahead of EUR\/JPY at 4%, EUR\/GBP at 3% and EUR\/AUD at 2%.<\/p>\n
We are watching EUR\/USD continue its slide, now trading around 1.1420 as of June 22, 2026. This breaks below the key 1.1450 support level, confirming the persistent bearish pressure. The technical picture suggests that sellers remain in control for now.<\/p>\n
This downward momentum is happening despite a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank. The latest flash estimate for Eurozone inflation in June 2026 came in at a sticky 2.5%, keeping pressure on the ECB to consider another rate hike. We’ve heard ECB board member Isabel Schnabel echo this sentiment last week, reinforcing market expectations.<\/p>\n
In contrast, recent US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for May showed core inflation cooling to 2.6%, suggesting the Federal Reserve can remain patient. This growing policy divergence, where the ECB feels pressured to tighten while the Fed may not, is a powerful headwind for the pair. It fundamentally supports a stronger dollar against the euro.<\/p>\n
Looking at market positioning, we see that the latest CFTC report from June 19, 2026, shows large speculators have trimmed their net long positions in the Euro. This indicates that conviction on the Euro’s upside is weakening among hedge funds and other major players. This shift often precedes further price declines.<\/p>\n
Given the bearish trend, we believe buying put options is a viable strategy to position for further downside in the coming weeks. A bear put spread, such as buying a July 1.1400 put and selling a 1.1300 put, could be an effective way to target a move lower while capping the premium cost. This strategy remains profitable as long as the key resistance at 1.1570 is not breached.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD weakens below key averages amid US-Iran optimism, ECB hike bets, Fed patience, and bearish technicals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16972,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[9,86,56,10,19],"class_list":["post-55487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates","tag-dollar","tag-eur","tag-euro","tag-forex","tag-trading"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55487\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}