USD\/CHF was steady on Wednesday as markets waited for the Federal Reserve\u2019s policy decision, with rates expected to remain unchanged. The pair was trading at 0.7932, broadly flat, and continued to hold above the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 0.7905 as an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern stayed intact.<\/p>\n
Momentum indicators were mixed: the Relative Strength Index pointed to bullish conditions, but its flat slope suggested indecision. On the topside, a move above 0.7950 would bring 0.8013 into view, then 0.8042 as the measured target, with 0.8050 beyond. If the pair drops below the 200-day SMA, bears would target 0.7900, and a break there would shift focus to a confluence of the 50-day SMA and the June 4 low at 0.7868, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7841 and then 0.7800.<\/p>\n
We are watching the USD\/CHF hold a critical inverse head-and-shoulders pattern above its 200-day moving average. The market is currently consolidating ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, and this indecision is clearly reflected in the flat RSI indicator. We anticipate a significant move once a direction is established.<\/p>\n
For a bullish outlook, we are considering call options or long futures positions if the price moves firmly above the 0.7950 level. Recent US data supports this view, with core inflation holding at a sticky 2.8% and the last jobs report showing a robust 210,000 new payrolls, giving the Fed little reason to signal rate cuts. This strengthens the dollar and makes a push toward the 0.8013 resistance more probable.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, the policy divergence with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) adds to the bullish case. With Swiss inflation recently reported at a mild 1.4%, the SNB remains one of the few central banks with a dovish bias, which historically weakens the franc against the dollar. We see this as a key driver that could help the pair reach its measured target of 0.8042 in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
However, we must manage risk if the pair fails to hold its current support. A break below the 200-day SMA at 0.7905 would signal a failed pattern, and we would look to initiate short positions or purchase put options. Such a move could be triggered by a surprisingly dovish statement from the Fed, targeting a test of the 0.7868 level.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF holds above 200-day SMA as markets await Fed; 0.7950 breakout may target 0.8042.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16968,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[99,9,10,57],"class_list":["post-55321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates","tag-central-bank","tag-dollar","tag-forex","tag-franc"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55321\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}