USD\/CHF fell more than 0.34% on Monday as most G8 FX currencies rose against the US Dollar after the Middle East conflict eased, following a peace deal agreed by the US and Iran. The pair was trading at 0.7943 after touching 0.7968 earlier in the session.<\/p>\n
Technically, the inverted head-and-shoulders formation remains in place. USD\/CHF tested the 200-day SMA at 0.7906 before buyers lifted it back towards 0.7950, though momentum has eased; the RSI still points to potential upside as it remains above the 50 neutral level. Resistance is seen at 0.8000, and a break would bring the April 6 high at 0.8018 into view, then the March 31 daily high at 0.8042, which also marks the pattern objective, with 0.8100 beyond that. Support starts at the 200-day SMA at 0.7906, then 0.7900, followed by the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at 0.7864 and 0.7835.<\/p>\n
Based on yesterday’s dip, we see the market reacting to the US-Iran peace deal, which temporarily weakens the US Dollar as a safe haven. However, the USD\/CHF pair quickly found buyers near the 200-day moving average, suggesting this fundamental news may be a short-term distraction. We view this pullback as a potential entry point, as the underlying technical structure remains bullish.<\/p>\n
The inverted head-and-shoulders pattern is the dominant technical signal, pointing toward a target above the 0.8040 level. We believe that buying call options with strike prices near 0.8000 for the coming weeks could be a viable strategy. This allows us to capitalize on the expected upward move while defining our risk.<\/p>\n
Fundamentally, the policy difference between the central banks still favors a higher USD\/CHF. The Swiss National Bank has continued its rate-cutting cycle to weaken the franc, with its key rate now well below that of the US Federal Reserve, which has signaled a higher-for-longer stance. This interest rate differential, which currently stands at over 350 basis points, provides a strong tailwind for the US Dollar.<\/p>\n
Despite our bullish outlook, traders should be prepared for volatility and protect against a potential breakdown. The 200-day simple moving average at 0.7906 is a critical level of support to watch. Purchasing put options with a strike price just below 0.7900 could serve as an effective hedge against a reversal.<\/p>\n
The conflict between the bullish technical chart and the bearish geopolitical news suggests an increase in price swings is likely. Implied volatility in USD\/CHF options has already ticked up by over 8% in the past month. For those uncertain of direction, strategies that profit from this volatility, rather than a specific price direction, should be considered.<\/p>\n
Therefore, our immediate focus is on the 0.8000 psychological barrier as a trigger for further upside. A decisive break above this level would confirm the bullish momentum and likely propel the pair towards our 0.8042 objective. On the downside, a failure to hold support at 0.7900 would signal that the market is giving more weight to the recent geopolitical news.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF dipped after US-Iran peace deal, but held 200-day SMA; bullish pattern targets 0.8042, eyes 0.8000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16970,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[99,9,10,57,97],"class_list":["post-55147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates","tag-central-bank","tag-dollar","tag-forex","tag-franc","tag-volatility"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55147\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}