US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US may restart attacks on Iran, but said he has not decided. He made the comments to reporters at the White House.<\/p>\n
He said, \u201cWe may have to give Iran another hit, but I\u2019m not sure,\u201d and claimed that \u201cIran is begging to make a deal.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump also referred to Cuba, saying, \u201cI don\u2019t know about changing the regime in Cuba.\u201d He added, \u201cCuba really needs help.\u201d<\/p>\n
The president’s conflicting statements introduce significant uncertainty, which is something we can trade on. The key is to prepare for a spike in market volatility, as the talk of military action clashes directly with the possibility of a diplomatic deal. This means options pricing is likely to increase across several key sectors in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
We see the most immediate impact in the energy markets, specifically WTI and Brent crude futures. With nearly 20% of the world’s oil still passing through the Strait of Hormuz, any hint of conflict could send prices soaring towards $100 a barrel, a level we haven’t seen since the supply shocks of 2025. Buying out-of-the-money call options on crude oil for the next 30 to 60 days is a direct way to position for this potential escalation.<\/p>\n
This kind of geopolitical risk will almost certainly move the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which is currently trading at a relatively calm level of 13. We expect a jump in the VIX, making now an opportune time to buy VIX call options or futures to hedge against a broader market downturn. Looking back at similar tensions in 2025, the VIX saw a 40% spike in a single week.<\/p>\n
For those managing equity portfolios, this is a clear signal to purchase protective put options on major indices like the S&P 500. The mixed messages from the White House could easily trigger a risk-off sentiment, causing a quick drop in the market. A sudden military strike could see the market test the lows we experienced earlier this year.<\/p>\n
We are also watching safe-haven assets, particularly gold, which is already holding firm above $2,400 an ounce. These comments will likely provide another tailwind, pushing it toward new highs as investors seek shelter from the uncertainty. Call options on gold-backed ETFs offer a leveraged way to bet on this flight to safety.<\/p>\n
Conversely, the “begging to make a deal” comment suggests this tension could evaporate quickly, causing a volatility crush where option premiums collapse. This makes strategies like vertical spreads attractive, as they define our risk if a peaceful resolution suddenly emerges. By selling a higher-strike call against a purchased call in the energy sector, for example, we can limit our downside if the situation de-escalates.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trump said US may restart attacks on Iran, undecided, claiming Iran seeks deal; also mentioned Cuba needs help.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-53672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53672"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53672\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53672"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}