{"id":53492,"date":"2026-05-18T07:19:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T23:19:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/new-zealand-services-pmi-rises-in-april-but-stays-in-contraction-complicating-rbnz-rate-cut-bets\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T07:19:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T23:19:18","slug":"new-zealand-services-pmi-rises-in-april-but-stays-in-contraction-complicating-rbnz-rate-cut-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/live-updates\/new-zealand-services-pmi-rises-in-april-but-stays-in-contraction-complicating-rbnz-rate-cut-bets\/","title":{"rendered":"New Zealand services PMI rises in April but stays in contraction, complicating RBNZ rate-cut bets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New Zealand\u2019s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) rose to 48.9 in April, up from 46 in the previous month.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the increase, the index remained below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction rather than expansion in the services sector.<\/p>\n<h3>Services Sector Momentum Improves<\/h3>\n<p>New Zealand&#8217;s services sector showed a marked improvement in April, with the index rising to 48.9. While this figure is still below the 50-point mark that separates contraction from growth, it signals the slowdown is losing momentum. This suggests the economic floor might be forming, which we have been anticipating.<\/p>\n<p>This data complicates the outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s (RBNZ) next meeting on May 29, 2026. We&#8217;ve seen first-quarter inflation this year cool to 3.8%, but that is still well above the RBNZ&#8217;s target range. With activity now looking less weak, traders should consider reducing bets on imminent interest rate cuts, possibly by selling interest rate futures.<\/p>\n<p>For currency traders, this development provides a supportive backdrop for the New Zealand dollar. A less dovish RBNZ would make the NZD more attractive, especially against currencies where rate cuts are more certain. We could see traders using options strategies to position for potential NZD\/USD strength in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n<p>This improvement aligns with other recent data, such as the 5% year-on-year increase in international visitor arrivals for the first quarter of 2026. Looking back at 2025, the economy was bracing for a harder landing after the RBNZ held the cash rate at 5.50% for the entire year. This new activity data suggests the economy is proving more resilient than we previously thought.<\/p>\n<h3>Implications For Rates And Currency<\/h3>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New Zealand\u2019s services sector improved in April, but PSI stayed below 50, signaling ongoing contraction.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16996,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[72],"class_list":["post-53492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates","tag-kiwi"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53492\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}