TLT is an exchange-traded fund that tracks long-term US Treasury bonds. Its price tends to move with interest-rate expectations and conditions in the bond market.<\/p>\n
Since the 2020 peak, TLT has followed a five-wave decline under Elliott Wave analysis. This pattern points to a longer-term downtrend in long-duration bonds alongside rising yields across the period.<\/p>\n
Since 2024, price action has moved sideways in what is described as a corrective phase. This has been labelled as a wave IV consolidation, with price behaviour that resembles a bearish triangle and tighter trading ranges.<\/p>\n
Under this framework, the next move may be a wave V decline in the weeks or months ahead. That would complete the broader bearish cycle that began from the 2020 highs.<\/p>\n
Based on our analysis, the prolonged consolidation in TLT since 2024 appears to be a pause before the next major leg down. This pattern strongly suggests that long-term bond prices are coiling for a bearish breakdown. The expected Wave V decline would imply a significant move toward lower prices and, consequently, higher yields.<\/p>\n
This view is reinforced by recent economic data that undermines the case for imminent rate cuts. The April 2026 CPI report showed inflation remains persistent at 3.8%, while the latest jobs report added a robust 215,000 payrolls, keeping wage pressures firm. Looking back at 2025, we saw similar periods where stubborn inflation prevented a sustained bond rally, suggesting this trend continues.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this creates an opportunity to position for a drop in TLT’s price. One direct approach is purchasing put options with expirations in the coming months, such as July or August 2026. This allows for capitalizing on a downward move while defining risk to the premium paid.<\/p>\n
To manage costs, especially as implied volatility may rise ahead of a breakdown, consider using bear put spreads. By buying a higher-strike put and simultaneously selling a lower-strike put, you can reduce the initial cash outlay. This strategy defines both your maximum profit and loss, making it a more capital-efficient way to express a bearish view.<\/p>\n
We are also watching key yield levels for confirmation. The 10-year Treasury yield is once again approaching the 4.75% resistance level, a zone it struggled to break through during the second half of 2025. A decisive move above this level would likely trigger the anticipated sell-off in TLT.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
TLT tracks long-term Treasuries; after a five-wave drop, a wave IV consolidation may precede another decline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[9],"class_list":["post-53465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates","tag-dollar"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t