{"id":52430,"date":"2026-03-17T14:22:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T06:22:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=44655"},"modified":"2026-03-17T14:22:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T06:22:30","slug":"aussie-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rba-tone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rba-tone\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Dollar Gains On Hawkish RBA Tone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Aussie1-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-44658\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AUDUSD climbed to around 0.7088<\/strong>, extending gains after a <strong>1.3% rally overnight<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>RBA raised rates to 4.10%<\/strong>, with a narrow <strong>5\u20134 split vote<\/strong>, signalling ongoing inflation concerns.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets now price a <strong>40% chance of another hike in May<\/strong>, with <strong>4.35% expected by August<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar pushed higher on Tuesday, building on recent momentum as markets reacted to a more hawkish-than-expected tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AUDUSD rose toward 0.7088<\/strong>, adding to a strong rally from the previous session, as traders reassessed the path of interest rates following the RBA\u2019s latest policy decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia\u2019s central bank raised its key interest rate for a second straight meeting on Tuesday, stepping up its battle against stubborn inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/luLi5ZrJ76\">https:\/\/t.co\/luLi5ZrJ76<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2033750359315710204?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 17, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the central bank\u2019s <strong>25 basis point hike to 4.10%<\/strong> was widely expected, the reaction was driven by forward guidance rather than the move itself. The decision revealed a <strong>narrow 5\u20134 split<\/strong>, highlighting growing urgency among policymakers to address persistent inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hawkish Messaging Supports the Currency<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasised that the disagreement within the board was not about direction, but timing. The key question was whether to raise rates immediately or wait until May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This distinction reinforced expectations that <strong>further tightening remains likely<\/strong>, especially with inflation still running above target. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/c6UcVNJyYw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">Core inflation<\/a> at <strong>3.4%<\/strong> continues to exceed the RBA\u2019s <strong>2%\u20133% target band<\/strong>, keeping pressure on policymakers to act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australia\u2019s central bank is set to deliver back-to-back interest-rate increases on Tuesday driven by the war in Iran and a deterioration in the economy\u2019s supply of workers, according to James McIntyre at Bloomberg Economics <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oH4HZHtyq8\">https:\/\/t.co\/oH4HZHtyq8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2031882507533042030?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 11, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets responded quickly. The probability of a <strong>May rate hike increased to 40%<\/strong>, up from 25%, while a move to <strong>4.35% is now fully priced by August<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If inflation remains sticky, AUDUSD may stay supported. However, any signs of easing price pressures could temper expectations for further hikes and cap upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yield Differentials Add Support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar is also benefiting from supportive yield dynamics. Australian <strong>10-year bond yields are holding near 4.961%<\/strong>, having recently tested the <strong>5.0% level<\/strong>, the highest since mid-2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The spread between Australian and U.S. yields has widened to <strong>72 basis points<\/strong>, making Australian assets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1Xi4AcLOZX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">more attractive to global traders<\/a> and supporting capital inflows into the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This yield advantage is a key pillar for AUD strength, particularly in a global environment where central banks are reassessing their policy stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>AUDUSD<\/strong> pair is trading near <strong>0.7067<\/strong>, holding relatively steady despite a slight intraday dip of around <strong>0.05%<\/strong>. Price action suggests the pair is entering a consolidation phase after a sustained uptrend that began in late December, where it rallied from lows near <strong>0.6421<\/strong> to a recent high of <strong>0.7187<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a technical perspective, the short-term structure remains supported but is beginning to lose momentum. The <strong>5-day (0.7070)<\/strong> and <strong>10-day (0.7065)<\/strong> moving averages are tightly clustered around the current price, indicating a lack of directional conviction. Meanwhile, the <strong>20-day (0.7071)<\/strong> and <strong>30-day (0.7066)<\/strong> averages are also converging, reinforcing the view that the market is compressing and preparing for a potential breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/05\/image-22-1024x472.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-44656\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Immediate support is seen around the <strong>0.7040\u20130.7050<\/strong> region, where recent pullbacks have stabilised. A break below this zone could open the door toward <strong>0.7000<\/strong>, a key psychological level. On the upside, resistance remains at <strong>0.7180\u20130.7200<\/strong>, marking the recent swing high and a barrier that bulls have yet to decisively clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, AUDUSD appears to be <strong>range-bound in the near term<\/strong>, with the broader bullish structure still intact as long as price holds above <strong>0.7000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the current compression in moving averages suggests that a <strong>decisive breakout\u2014either higher or lower\u2014may be approaching<\/strong>, depending on macro catalysts such as US dollar strength or shifts in risk sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Traders Should Watch Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The near-term direction for AUDUSD will likely depend on whether markets continue to price in further RBA tightening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key catalysts include upcoming inflation data, RBA commentary, and shifts in global risk sentiment. Traders will also monitor whether the pair can sustain momentum above the <strong>0.7080 area<\/strong> and challenge the <strong>0.7122 resistance level<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For now, the Australian dollar appears supported by a combination of <strong>hawkish policy expectations, strong yields, and resilient technical structure<\/strong>, though global uncertainties remain a key risk to the outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Forex Pairs<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FAQs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why is AUDUSD Rising Right Now?<\/strong> <br>The Australian dollar is gaining strength after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a rate hike and signalled that further tightening remains likely due to persistent inflation risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What Did the RBA Decide at Its Latest Meeting?<\/strong> <br>The RBA raised its cash rate by <strong>25 basis points to 4.10%<\/strong>, reaching a 10-month high. The decision was closely contested, with a <strong>5\u20134 split vote<\/strong> among policymakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why Did Markets View the RBA as Hawkish?<\/strong> <br>Governor Michele Bullock indicated the debate was about timing rather than direction, suggesting further rate hikes are still on the table if inflation does not return to target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What Are Markets Pricing for Future RBA Policy?<\/strong> <br>Markets have increased expectations for another rate hike, with around a <strong>40% probability of a move in May<\/strong>, and a rate of <strong>4.35% fully priced by August<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How is Inflation Affecting the Australian Dollar?<\/strong> <br>Core inflation remains elevated at <strong>3.4%<\/strong>, above the RBA\u2019s target range of 2% to 3%. Persistent inflation supports a hawkish policy outlook, which tends to strengthen the currency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUDUSD rises toward 0.7088 as the RBA hikes to 4.10% and signals further tightening, with markets pricing another move by May. | VT Markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[70,10],"class_list":["post-52430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AUDUSD rises toward 0.7088 as the RBA hikes to 4.10% and signals further tightening, with markets pricing another move by May. | VT Markets\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rba-tone\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\n\t\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\"> (function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){ c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)}; t=l.createElement(r);t.async=1;t.src=\"https:\/\/www.clarity.ms\/tag\/\"+i; y=l.getElementsByTagName(r)[0];y.parentNode.insertBefore(t,y); })(window, document, \"clarity\", \"script\", \"hvd42hy9tt\"); <\/script>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"VT Markets -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aussie Dollar Gains On Hawkish RBA Tone - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AUDUSD rises toward 0.7088 as the RBA hikes to 4.10% and signals further tightening, with markets pricing another move by May. | VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rba-tone\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-17T06:22:30+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-17T06:22:30+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/vtmarketsglobal\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@vtmarketsglobal\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Aussie Dollar Gains On Hawkish RBA Tone - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"AUDUSD rises toward 0.7088 as the RBA hikes to 4.10% and signals further tightening, with markets pricing another move by May. | VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@vtmarketsglobal\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/analysis\\\/aussie-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rba-tone\\\/#breadcrumblist\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca#listItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/category\\\/analysis\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Today's Analysis\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/category\\\/analysis\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Today's Analysis\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/category\\\/analysis\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/analysis\\\/aussie-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rba-tone\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Aussie Dollar Gains On Hawkish RBA Tone\"},\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca#listItem\",\"name\":\"Home\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/analysis\\\/aussie-dollar-gains-on-hawkish-rba-tone\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Aussie Dollar Gains On Hawkish RBA Tone\",\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/category\\\/analysis\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Today's Analysis\"}}]},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.vtmarkets.com\\\/en-ca\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"VT Markets\",\"description\":\"Trading Made Easy. 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