Brent crude rose to about USD 95\/bbl as tensions between the US and Iran increased around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent closed at USD 90\/bbl on Friday after Iran said the strait would remain open for the rest of a 10-day US-brokered truce between Israel and Lebanon.<\/p>\n
Iran later said the strait was closed again after the US confirmed a shipping blockade would continue. Iran was also accused of firing on vessels near the strait.<\/p>\n
Early on Monday, the US intercepted an Iranian cargo ship that was attempting to breach the maritime blockade. Iran said it would retaliate, while plans for a second round of talks remained uncertain ahead of the ceasefire ending on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Iran said it would not take part in talks unless the blockade is lifted. Separately, the US Treasury extended exemptions to Russian oil sanctions by one month.<\/p>\n
Oil price moves were linked to disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz. If oil flows through the strait do not restart soon, Brent could rise above USD 100\/bbl again.<\/p>\n
With Brent crude jumping to USD 95\/bbl this morning, we are advising caution due to extreme volatility. The immediate focus is on the US-Iran negotiations ahead of the ceasefire’s expiration tomorrow. The sharp price moves create significant risks and opportunities in the derivatives market.<\/p>\n
The primary risk is a further price spike if the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 21 million barrels of petroleum liquids per day, remains closed. We see a strong case for buying near-term call options, targeting strike prices above USD 100\/bbl, to capitalize on a potential failure in talks. The extension of Russian oil sanctions exemptions suggests to us that Washington is bracing for a continued supply disruption.<\/p>\n
Implied volatility in oil options has surged, reflecting the market’s uncertainty. This makes options pricing more expensive, but it also presents a clear opportunity for hedging existing portfolios against a sudden move in either direction. We remember last year, in the fall of 2025, when similar tensions caused a brief but sharp spike, catching many off guard.<\/p>\n
A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, however, could cause prices to collapse back toward last Friday’s level of USD 90\/bbl or lower. Traders should therefore consider protective put options to hedge against this whipsaw risk. The fast-changing headlines mean that any position requires careful management.<\/p>\n
We are also looking at the broader impact, as the recent March 2026 inflation report showed energy prices were a key driver of rising costs. A sustained oil price over USD 100\/bbl could pressure equities and force a reaction from central banks. This suggests looking at options on energy-sector ETFs or currency pairs sensitive to oil price shocks.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Brent neared $95 as US-Iran tensions threatened Hormuz flows; blockade standoff risks pushing prices above $100.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t