AUD\/USD opened on Monday with a bearish gap to about 0.7115, then rebounded and moved back above the mid-0.7100s in Asia. It has paused after pulling back from Friday\u2019s peak near 0.7220, the highest level since June 2022.<\/p>\n
The US dollar started the week firmer amid renewed US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which weighed on AUD\/USD early on. Reduced expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate rise limited further US dollar gains, while the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s hawkish outlook supported the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n
Technically, the pair has risen strongly from the 100-day simple moving average and broke above the 0.7115 resistance last week. Buying interest around 0.7115, now seen as support, points to a continued upward bias.<\/p>\n
Momentum signals lean positive, with MACD above its signal line and RSI near 62, which does not indicate overbought conditions. A move above 0.7200 could open the way to a retest of 0.7220\u20130.7225.<\/p>\n
Support is first seen near 0.7115, with further support around 0.7100. The 100-day SMA is near 0.6900.<\/p>\n
Looking back at the bullish technical setup from early 2025, we remember the strong momentum that carried the AUD\/USD past the 0.7115 level. The positive signals from indicators like the MACD and RSI were valid at the time, supporting a continued push. That analysis correctly identified the near-term path of least resistance as being to the upside.<\/p>\n
However, that rally toward 0.7225 proved to be a peak as the fundamental outlook shifted later that year. The Reserve Bank of Australia paused its hiking cycle sooner than anticipated, while the US Federal Reserve maintained a restrictive stance longer than the market priced in. This divergence in central bank policy eventually unwound the Aussie’s strength through the second half of 2025.<\/p>\n
Today, on April 20, 2026, the situation is completely different, with the pair trading near 0.6550. We now see Australian inflation down to 3.1%, with markets pricing in a 75% chance of an RBA rate cut by August. In contrast, US inflation is holding firmer at 2.8%, making the Fed cautious about easing policy too soon.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, this environment suggests positioning for either further downside or range-bound activity. One-month implied volatility for AUD\/USD is currently at a relatively low 8.5%, making it cheaper to buy options than it was a year ago. This presents an opportunity to structure trades with a favorable risk-reward profile.<\/p>\n
Given the dovish RBA sentiment, traders anticipating a break lower could consider buying put options targeting the 0.6400 level. Alternatively, constructing bear put spreads would reduce the upfront cost while still profiting from a modest decline. This strategy defines the risk should a surprise geopolitical event or a shift in Fed language cause a dollar downturn.<\/p>\n
For those who believe the major central bank moves are already priced in, the low volatility makes selling options attractive. A short strangle, selling both an out-of-the-money call and put, could be a viable strategy to collect premium. This would be profitable if we expect the AUD\/USD to consolidate in its current 0.6500-0.6650 range ahead of the next major economic data releases.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/USD rebounded above 0.7100 after a bearish gap; bullish momentum persists, targeting 0.7220, support 0.7115.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t