China\u2019s trade expanded strongly in January to February 2026, supporting economic growth and shifting sales away from the US towards ASEAN, the EU and regional partners. Exports rose 21.8% year on year in US dollar terms, versus a 7.2% estimate and 6.6% in December.<\/p>\n
Imports increased 19.8% year on year, compared with a 7.0% estimate and 5.7% in December. The trade surplus was US$213.62 billion, up from US$169.21 billion in January to February 2025.<\/p>\n
Average monthly surplus for the two-month period was US$106.81 billion, below December\u2019s US$114.11 billion, due to faster import growth. Commodity import volumes increased year to date by February, including copper ore, iron ore, coal, crude oil and refined petroleum products.<\/p>\n
Higher commodity volumes suggest stock building as Middle East tensions rose and could affect supply. For 2026, exports are forecast to grow 2.8% in US dollar terms (2025: 5.5%) and imports 2.0% (2025: flat).<\/p>\n
The surprisingly strong Chinese trade data from early this year challenges the slow-growth narrative we saw building in late 2025. We’ve already seen China-focused ETFs like the MCHI rally over 4% in the past week on this news. Traders should consider buying call options or bull call spreads to capitalize on this renewed momentum.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s move to build inventories due to Middle East risks is a clear signal for commodity markets. Brent crude is now trading firmly above $95 per barrel, partly because Chinese imports hit a record volume for the Jan-Feb period. Going long on oil and industrial metals like copper, which just broke $9,000 per tonne, seems prudent.<\/p>\n
The strength in Chinese demand directly supports commodity currencies, especially the Australian dollar. The AUD\/USD has pushed to a five-month high above 0.6850 as iron ore prices surged, a pattern we also saw during the stimulus talk in 2024. This makes long AUD positions attractive against currencies with weaker fundamentals.<\/p>\n
The physical movement of these goods is being reflected in global shipping costs. The Baltic Dry Index has risen 15% over the last month, confirming the scale of China’s import activity. This suggests the demand is real and is creating ripple effects across the logistics sector.<\/p>\n
We must also note the forecast for much slower growth for the rest of 2026, with export growth projected to fall to just 2.8%. This suggests the current rally could be a short-term reaction to the Jan-Feb data surprise. Consider using calendar spreads to profit from the immediate strength while hedging against a potential slowdown in the second quarter.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" China\u2019s Jan\u2013Feb 2026 trade surged: exports +21.8%, imports +19.8%, surplus $213.6bn; shifting from US.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51166\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}