EUR\/USD held the 1.1500 level despite earlier selling pressure. Options pricing did not point to expectations of a large downside move, as the one-month risk reversal became less supportive of euro put demand.<\/p>\n
Rate markets repriced after an oil-driven energy shock, using the one-month OIS priced one year forward as a reference. The average move across the G10 was about a 50bp increase.<\/p>\n
US rates were up 25bp, linked to expectations of a smaller effect on US inflation. In Europe, EUR ESTR was marked 65bp higher and GBP OIS 80bp higher.<\/p>\n
This shift could narrow EUR:USD two-year swap differentials, which may reinforce support near 1.1500. Initial resistance is noted at 1.1650, with further gains tied to progress towards a ceasefire.<\/p>\n
The article states it was produced with assistance from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
We are seeing a familiar pattern emerge today, March 10, 2026, reminiscent of the energy shock we navigated back in 2025. At that time, the 1.1500 level in EUR\/USD proved to be a solid floor as the market repriced European interest rates more aggressively than US rates. This dynamic appears to be repeating, providing a strong historical precedent for the current market.<\/p>\n
Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are again threatening an energy shock, and recent data supports a divergence in central bank outlooks. The Eurozone’s February 2026 HICP flash estimate came in higher than expected at 2.8%, while the latest US CPI remains more contained at 3.1%. This suggests the European Central Bank may be forced into a more hawkish stance than the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
In the options market, we are observing a similar lack of fear for a major downside break in the EUR\/USD. The one-month risk reversal is showing reduced demand for EUR puts, suggesting derivative traders are not positioning for a significant decline from current levels. This echoes the sentiment we saw in 2025 when the support level last held.<\/p>\n
The key driver remains the narrowing interest rate differential, which we see in the two-year swap market where the EUR:USD spread has tightened to -75 basis points from -90 basis points just last month. This makes holding Euros relatively more attractive and reinforces the idea that the 1.1500 support level will hold firm in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
Therefore, we see the initial resistance for EUR\/USD at the 1.1650 mark. A significant rally beyond this level will likely depend on any de-escalation of the new energy supply concerns. Traders should watch these developments closely, as they will dictate the pair’s ability to break through that ceiling.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD held 1.1500 as oil shock lifted G10 rates; narrowing swap spreads may support euro, resistance 1.1650.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}