A prior February 11 update said that in pre-election years the NASDAQ 100 typically bottoms on 5 February, peaks around 15 February, dips towards 21 February, then rises to a 18 March high before falling until October. It also set an Elliott Wave downside area of 24,200 \u00b1 200.<\/p>\n
The index bottomed on 5 February, peaked on 11 February, then made another low on 17 February, followed by a secondary high on 25 February. It then fell to its lowest level since the November 2025 low after joint military operations in Iran, but later erased Monday\u2019s losses.<\/p>\n
The 24,200 \u00b1 200 target zone was met at the 24,315 low. Price is described as being at the same level as five months ago.<\/p>\n
The broader Elliott Wave count still points to about 26,600 for the red W-b, provided the index stays above warning levels. The text states daily moves can be noisy, with weekly giving structure and monthly setting the trend.<\/p>\n
The 26,600 area is calculated as 161.8% of the 2020-2021 rise: W-1 from 6,772 to 16,765 (9,993 points), W-2 at 10,440 on 13 October 2022, and W-3 target 10,440 + 9,992 \u00d7 1.618 = 26,608. Warning levels listed are 24,992, 24,795, 24,637, 24,497, and 24,315.<\/p>\n
As of today, March 5, 2026, we see the NASDAQ 100 has recovered strongly from the market’s reaction to the joint military operations in Iran. The index hit our target low of $24,315 and bounced, suggesting the immediate selling pressure is over. This price action reinforces the view that the market is setting up for one final rally.<\/p>\n
For the next few weeks, the primary strategy is to position for an upward move toward the $26,600 target. With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreating back under 16 after last week’s geopolitical spike, call options expiring in late March or mid-April have become more attractively priced. This short-term bullish outlook remains valid as long as the index holds above its recent lows.<\/p>\n
However, we must view this potential rally with caution, as it fits the historical pattern of a deceptive peak before a significant decline. We saw a similar setup in February 2020, when the market pushed to a new all-time high right before a sharp C-wave sell-off. These irregular B-waves are designed to draw in final buyers before the trend reverses.<\/p>\n
Therefore, as the index approaches the $26,600 level, traders should begin planning for the other side of the trade. The latest economic data showing core inflation remaining persistent at 3.6% could provide the fundamental reason for a market turn. Cautious traders might start buying longer-dated put options, for May or June, to prepare for a substantial drop.<\/p>\n
Strict risk management is essential, and the key warning levels must be respected. Any sustained break below the $24,992 and $24,795 supports would signal that the expected final rally is off the table. A move below Monday’s low of $24,315 would invalidate the entire bullish short-term structure.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NASDAQ 100 hit 24,315 target, volatile on Iran news; Elliott Wave still targets 26,600 above warnings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16985,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}