Gold traded higher on Friday after reports that US officials advised nonessential embassy staff in Israel to leave, amid the US-Iran standoff. XAU\/USD was around $5,225, up 0.57%, and moved back above $5,200.<\/p>\n
US inflation signals reduced expectations for a June Federal Reserve rate cut. Core PPI rose 0.8% month-on-month in January versus a 0.3% forecast and 0.6% in December, while the yearly rate was 3.6% versus 3.0% expected and 3.3% prior.<\/p>\n
Markets expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in March and April, with lower pricing for a June cut. This supported the US Dollar and limited Gold\u2019s gains.<\/p>\n
Indirect US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva ended on Thursday without progress, while US military deployment in the region increased. Further technical talks are planned next week in Vienna.<\/p>\n
Trade uncertainty rose after a new 10% global tariff took effect, following a US Supreme Court ruling against earlier use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. Gold remained range-bound, but was set for a fourth straight weekly gain and a seventh straight monthly gain.<\/p>\n
On charts, support sits near $5,140 and $5,038, with downside levels at $5,000. Resistance is $5,200\u2013$5,250, then $5,342 and the $5,598 peak; RSI is 55 and ADX is about 17.<\/p>\n
Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest on record.<\/p>\n
With gold pushing past $5,200, we see clear safe-haven buying driven by the escalating US-Iran situation. The advisory for US staff in Israel is fueling fears of a direct military conflict. This geopolitical premium is now a dominant factor in the market.<\/p>\n
However, we must not ignore the strong US economic data, with core PPI coming in much hotter than expected. This situation is reminiscent of what we saw back in 2023 and 2024, when sticky inflation forced the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish. Markets have now almost completely priced out a June rate cut, which is providing a floor for the US Dollar and capping gold’s ascent.<\/p>\n
This conflict between geopolitics and monetary policy suggests a range-bound market in the immediate future, likely between $5,140 and $5,350. For derivative traders, this is an environment to consider selling volatility through strategies like iron condors or short strangles. The weak trend reading supports the view that we lack a strong directional catalyst for now.<\/p>\n
We should be positioned for a sharp breakout if the Geneva talks fail completely and military action begins. A move above the $5,342 resistance level would signal a significant escalation, and traders might look to long call options or bull call spreads to capture that upside. We only have to look back at the initial market reaction to the Ukraine invasion in early 2022 to understand how quickly these situations can reprice assets.<\/p>\n
Conversely, any surprisingly positive news from Vienna next week could pull the rug out from under the current price. If geopolitical risk fades, the market’s focus will snap back to the reality of high interest rates for longer. A break below the key support around $5,038 would invalidate the current bullish structure and could trigger a rapid sell-off.<\/p>\n
We cannot overlook the underlying support from central bank demand, which continues its historic pace from the last few years. Following the massive 1,037 tonnes purchased back in 2023 and similar levels in 2024, data indicates that the first half of 2025 saw central banks add another 400 tonnes to reserves. This consistent buying from official sources provides a strong buffer against potential downside.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold rises above $5,200 on Israel tensions, firmer US inflation, fewer June Fed-cut bets, trade uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16978,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50429"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50429\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}