Nomura analysts argue the Iran war could keep UK inflation above target until mid-2027, with the path for interest rates hinging on how oil-price moves feed through into broader market sensitivities. UK growth has already slowed to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in both Q3 and Q4 2025, and they characterize the outlook beyond Q1 2026 as weaker due to conflict-driven uncertainty.<\/p>\n
Early UK local election results also suggest a strong showing for Reform and a difficult night for Labour, adding political noise to an already fragile macro backdrop. The article further notes it was produced with an AI tool and then reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
Given persistent inflation alongside weak growth, the picture is consistent with stagflationary pressure. With April 2026 UK CPI still high at 4.8% versus the 2% target, the Bank of England faces a trade-off between supporting activity and re-anchoring inflation, increasing the risk that policy stays restrictive for longer\u2014closer in spirit to the 2022\u20132023 hiking cycle than to a rapid easing narrative.<\/p>\n
The growth outlook appears to be deteriorating beyond Q1 2026, extending the slowdown seen in the second half of 2025 and echoing the weakness around the late-2023 technical recession. For equity downside expression, derivative traders might consider FTSE 250 put options given the index\u2019s heavier exposure to domestically sensitive UK firms.<\/p>\n
The Iran conflict looks like the key inflation impulse via energy, with Brent around $115\/bbl\u2014levels that recall the post-Ukraine-invasion spike of 2022. As a hedge against renewed supply shocks, maintaining long exposure to oil (e.g., via futures) is a direct way to offset inflation and risk-asset drawdown channels tied to energy.<\/p>\n
Political uncertainty compounds the macro risks: local-election signals of fragmentation can raise risk premia and weigh on GBP, similar to prior episodes like the post-2016 Brexit devaluation and the 2022 mini-budget shock. Positioning that benefits from weaker sterling could include short GBP\/USD or buying GBP\/USD put options, sized with awareness that currency volatility can jump quickly around political events and central-bank repricing.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nomura warns Iran war may keep UK inflation elevated until 2027, weakening growth, boosting Reform support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":17035,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[66],"class_list":["post-49888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates","tag-oil"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49888\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}