US durable goods orders excluding defence rose to -0.3% in March, from -1.2% in the previous month.<\/p>\n
This means the monthly rate was still negative, but the fall was smaller than before.<\/p>\n
The March durable goods report, showing a smaller-than-expected decline of -0.3%, suggests the manufacturing slowdown may be finding a floor. While not a sign of growth, this improvement from the -1.2% drop in February has eased some of our more pessimistic economic forecasts. We see this as a reason to reduce hedges against a sharp market downturn in the immediate term.<\/p>\n
With the next Fed meeting just weeks away, this data complicates the case for an aggressive rate cut. Given that Q1 2026 GDP growth was already a modest 1.5%, the central bank will likely want more evidence before acting. We are therefore trimming positions in interest rate futures that bet on a 50-basis-point cut, instead favoring strategies built around a pause.<\/p>\n
This stabilization in business spending should provide a short-term floor for equity indices like the S&P 500. We anticipate a drop in implied volatility, as the worst-case recessionary scenarios are now less likely. Selling out-of-the-money puts on index ETFs could be a viable strategy to collect premium in this environment.<\/p>\n
We are reminded of the manufacturing weakness we navigated through much of 2025, which eventually resolved without a deep recession. This current data fits a similar pattern, suggesting resilience in the industrial and technology hardware sectors. We are cautiously exploring buying call options on industrial sector ETFs for the coming months.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" US durable goods orders excluding defence fell 0.3% in March, improving from a 1.2% decline previously.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16991,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t