Gold has come under pressure as oil-led inflation keeps real interest rates high, which raises the cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Demand from institutions, ETFs and central banks has weakened since the start of the war.<\/p>\n
Gold often rises with inflation, but tends to struggle when policy tightens and real rates increase, as seen in 1979\u201382. A negative supply shock may keep policy restrictive and real carry elevated.<\/p>\n
Market worries include stagflation and higher rates across the yield curve, which have weighed on metals. Since the conflict began, gold is down about $700\/oz (\u201313%), silver has fallen $21\/oz (\u201322%), and copper is flat despite a deep market deficit.<\/p>\n
Some central banks have slowed buying due to war-related liquidity constraints and may wait for lower prices. Technical support is near the 200-day moving average at about $4,258, and oil at $150\/b could push gold towards that level.<\/p>\n
If support around $4,258 holds and oil prices steady, gold is expected to recover towards $5,200 by year-end. The article was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.<\/p>\n
The pressure on gold continues as stubbornly high oil prices, now trading around $115 a barrel, keep inflation elevated. The latest CPI data for March 2026 showed a hotter-than-expected print of 4.5%, reinforcing the idea that monetary policy will remain restrictive. This environment keeps real interest rates high, increasing the cost of holding non-yielding gold.<\/p>\n
We are seeing this play out in institutional demand, with gold-backed ETFs recording net outflows of over 50 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026. This situation mirrors what we observed in the 1979-82 period when aggressive policy to fight inflation weighed on the metal. Consequently, central bank buying has also remained subdued since the conflict began back in 2025.<\/p>\n
For derivative traders, the key technical level to watch is the 200-day moving average, currently sitting near $4,310. A sustained break below this support could be triggered if oil prices spike toward the $150 mark discussed last year. This suggests that short-term positions or buying protective puts could be a prudent strategy against further downside in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
However, the longer-term uptrend could remain intact if this support level broadly holds. We anticipate a recovery back towards the $5,200 range by the end of the year, similar to the forecast made in 2025. Traders should watch for signs of oil prices stabilizing and inflation data pointing lower as a signal to consider long-term call options or futures positions for later in the year.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold weakens as oil-driven inflation keeps real rates high, curbing demand; support near $4,258, recovery possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16978,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t