USD\/CHF extended gains for a fourth day and traded near 0.7870 in Asian hours on Friday, rising towards 0.7900. The US Dollar firmed on safe-haven demand amid uncertainty linked to the US\u2013Iran conflict.<\/p>\n
Lebanon is set to seek a one-month extension to the current ceasefire with Israel during a second round of direct talks in Washington. Israel\u2019s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said the extension is \u201cnot 100%\u201d.<\/p>\n
The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers accused of trying to evade a blockade, while Iran has threatened vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US officials are preparing contingency plans to target Iran\u2019s Strait capabilities if the ceasefire ends.<\/p>\n
US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K from 212K. S&P Global PMI readings rose above expectations, with Manufacturing at 54.0 and Services at 51.3.<\/p>\n
In Switzerland, the trade surplus narrowed to CHF 2.7 billion in March from a revised CHF 4.4 billion in February. Imports rose 10.1% month on month to CHF 19.6 billion, while exports increased 1% to CHF 22.4 billion.<\/p>\n
Looking back at the analysis from over a year ago, we can see how the drivers for USD\/CHF have fundamentally changed. The pair has since climbed significantly from the 0.7900 level and now trades around 0.9150. The acute risk aversion that was driven by the US-Iran conflict in 2025 has largely dissipated.<\/p>\n
The intense focus on the Strait of Hormuz has subsided following de-escalation agreements in late 2025. This has removed the primary safe-haven bid that was supporting both the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc at the time. We see that the market’s attention has now shifted away from geopolitical flare-ups toward central bank policy divergence.<\/p>\n
While US economic data was strong back then, we now see a more mixed but stable picture. Recent data shows weekly jobless claims holding steady around 210,000, but the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI has dipped to 49.8, indicating a slight contraction. However, the services sector remains a key pillar of strength, with the Services PMI posting a robust 53.5.<\/p>\n
The speculation in 2025 of a more hawkish Swiss National Bank (SNB) has proven to be incorrect. With Swiss inflation having fallen to just 1.2% in the latest reading, the SNB became one of the first major central banks to begin an easing cycle, cutting its key policy rate to 1.50% last month. This stands in stark contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which is holding its policy rate steady.<\/p>\n
This policy divergence creates a significant interest rate differential favouring the US Dollar, providing a strong tailwind for the USD\/CHF pair. Derivative traders should consider selling out-of-the-money USD\/CHF puts or implementing bull put spreads. This strategy takes advantage of the carry trade and the floor that the interest rate gap provides for the pair.<\/p>\n
Implied volatility has also compressed significantly since the highs seen during the geopolitical tensions of 2025. This lower volatility environment makes it less expensive to construct longer-term bullish positions using call options. We believe traders can look at buying call options dated three to six months out to position for a continued, albeit slower, grind higher.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF rose near 0.7870 on safe-haven dollar demand as US-Iran tensions persisted; Swiss trade surplus narrowed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48572"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48572\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}