US shares rose after the Good Friday closure. The Dow added 120 points (0.3%) to about 46,500 after touching 46,700; the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%, after last week\u2019s rises of 3%, 3.4% and 4.4%.<\/p>\n
Markets reacted to March Nonfarm Payrolls data showing 178K jobs, versus 60K expected. The stronger headline followed strike-related returns, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month on month and 3.5% year on year, the lowest since May 2021.<\/p>\n
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%. February payrolls were revised to a 133K loss from a previously reported 92K fall.<\/p>\n
ISM services PMI eased to 54 in March from 56.1, against a 55 forecast, marking a 21st month of growth. The Employment Index fell to 45.2 from 51.8, while New Orders rose to 60.6 from 58.6.<\/p>\n
The Prices Paid Index climbed to 70.7 from 63, linked to higher oil and fuel costs. WTI was up 0.7% above $112 a barrel and Brent up 0.6% above $109, amid ceasefire talks and threats tied to the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Attention shifts to Thursday\u2019s third estimate of Q4 GDP and the PCE index, and Friday\u2019s March CPI; February CPI was 2.4% year on year. Futures implied a 77.5% chance rates stay at 3.50%\u20133.75% through year-end, with near-zero odds of an April move.<\/p>\n
Looking back to this time in 2025, the market was digesting a strong jobs report but was underestimating inflation risks. We saw the ISM Prices Paid index surging to 70.7, a clear warning sign of cost pressures that were being overlooked. The focus on soft wage growth at the time proved to be a head-fake, as rising energy costs were the real story.<\/p>\n
That sharp rise in prices paid during 2025 was a critical signal that the Federal Reserve would not be able to hold rates steady as markets expected. In fact, that year’s stubborn inflation, which saw the core PCE rise to 3.8% by the third quarter of 2025, forced two more rate hikes that brought us to the 4.75%-5.00% range we are in today. This history suggests we should place more weight on the price components of PMI reports than on wage data when the Fed is in a holding pattern.<\/p>\n
The extreme volatility in oil, with WTI swinging above $112 per barrel amid the Mideast conflict in 2025, also taught us a valuable lesson. While markets seemed desensitized then, the sustained high prices ultimately filtered into the broader economy, validating the concerns about energy disruption. With WTI now trading in a more stable range around $85 a barrel as of April 2026, implied volatility in the energy sector is much lower, presenting opportunities to buy protection against future geopolitical shocks at a cheaper price.<\/p>\n
Given that the March 2026 jobs report showed a more modest gain of 150K and the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.5%, the economic picture is now softer. The market is pricing in potential rate cuts later this year, a stark contrast to the hawkish reality that followed April 2025. Traders should consider strategies like buying call spreads on interest-rate sensitive ETFs, which would benefit from a Fed pivot while defining risk in case inflation proves sticky once again.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" US stocks rose after holiday, shrugging strong jobs data; oil climbed, while investors awaited inflation, GDP updates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":16987,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46727"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46727\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}